Introduction, Sample Space, EventsJuana [email protected] Department of StatisticsReading: Course syllabus; Textbook, Ross (8th edition), Chapter 2, (2.1-2.2)June 25th, first part of lecture.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsI. Course Syllabus summaryCourse syllabus reading is required.Read syllabus at home and bring any question to prof. Sanchez onThursday.The first quiz next tuesday will have questions about the syllabus (inaddition to other course material seen).A copy of the syllabus has been handed out today. Pick up one fromthe front desk if you did not get one.The syllabus is also posted in CCLE in the syllabus folder.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsImmediately Important Web Siteshttp://ccle.ucla.edu Required. (Homework, announcements,practice exams, incomplete lecture notes, etc. )http://www.oid.ucla.edu/webcasts/courses/ audio streamedlecture. Contact [email protected] if you encounter problems.Can also access from CCLE.If you have a disability and wish to request an accommodation,please contact the Office for Students with Disabilities as soon aspossible at A255 Murphy Hall, (310) 825-1501http://www.osd.ucla.eduJ. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsExamples of quiz questions about the syllabusWhat are the mathematical requirements for this class?Is the course opened to students that have taken Math 170A?Can people not registered attend this class?J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsTextbook, lecture notes and softwareText: A First Course in Probability, 8th edition.or 9th edition Ross,S. On reserve in Science and Engineering Library. Reference tospecific pages in this book will be inserted in the lectures.Free Software R-studio http://rstudio.org/ orhttp://cran.stat.ucla.edu/ . Please, download to your computersoon. Available in most labs on campus.The first TA session introduces you to accessing R and to roll dice inthe computer. See the last section of the syllabus with resources oncampus and links as well.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsMidterms: What does the syllabus say about midterms? How many?When? Are make up exams possible? If you miss an exam what isyour grade in the class?Quizzes: When? What percentage of your grade?Homework: IS it required? Homework will be posted in CCLE in thehomework folder. No make ups or late homework allowed under anycircumstances. Lowest homework score dropped. First homework isposted.Participation: Required. No make ups. Students not in class duringthe whole 50 minutes will not have participation graded. Threeparticipations dropped.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsHow much of your grade comes fromMidterms ?Participation ?Homework assignment: ?Quizzes?Letter grades will be assigned according to the following scale:A+ 98-100; A 95-97; A- 90-94;B+ 88-89; B 82-87; B- 80-81C+ 78-79; C 72-77; C- 70-71D+ 68-69; D 62-67; D- 60-61F Below 60; P (C or better); S (B or better)J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsAcademic IntegrityStudent Code of ConductAs a student and member of the University community, you are here toget an education and are, therefore ,expected to demonstrate integrity inyour academic endeavors. All students must uphold University ofCalifornia Standards of Student Conduct as administered by the Office ofthe Dean of Students (http://www.deanofstudents.ucla.edu).Students are subject to disciplinary action for several types of misconductor attempted misconduct, including but not limited to dishonesty such ascheating, multiple submission, plagiarism, or knowingly furnishing falseinformation.Read additional instructions in homework, exams, quizzes or participation.Not following instructions results in large cut of points earned.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsCampus and Class PolicyUCLA policy(http://www.registrar.ucla.edu/soc/notices.htm). Forexample, Cell phones and pagers must be turned off while inclassRadios and other electronic devices with or without earphones areprohibited in this class. Their use will affect your grade.Computers must be disconnected and in your backpack during thelecture, unless otherwise indicated. Only a scientific or graphicscalculator not phone calculator- are allowed (and you will need) inlectures ( graphics calculators will not be allowed in exams).J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsRemember: reading the syllabus is required.Bring your questions about it to Professor Sanchez on Thursday.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsII. Introduction to ProbabilityThroughout the centuries, most serious gamblers have developed afirm grasp of the relative chances of drawing the various hands atcards and of the various outcomes of throwing dice, simply by beingintensely involved and observing many hundreds of games (Empiricalprobabilities).But slowly, gamblers realized that games of chance might becomemore profitable if they could involve the mathematicians of the dayin calculating the odds involved. That gave rise to the mathematicalmodels for chance phenomena.This course covers the empirical approach (by practicing, or with thehelp of computers via simulation) and the mathematical approach,with applications of probability. We apply to a wide variety ofphenomena: genetics, inventory, actuarial science, military, kinetictheory, electricity, computer science, medicine, etc.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsExperimental approachLaws of chance can be observed through experimentation.For example, we can show mathematically that the probability thatat least two people in a group of 10 people share a birthmonth is1 −12!(2)!1210. But we can study the same thing by repeating anexperiment that consists of rolling a twelve-sided die 10 times andrecording whether there are any numbers repeated or not. Themathematical solution is the probability. The result of the repetitionof experiment is the experimental probability or estimate.Experimentation is so intertwined with the theory of probability thatit is customary to call all situations in which outcomes are notpredictable with certainty as experiments.J. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, EventsSimulationFigure: Simulating dice rolls in RJ. Sanchez Introduction, Sample Space, Events”Chance is accepted as a fundamental feature of the universe, asphysicists have asserted the probabilistic nature of matter at the particlelevel. Basic postulate of quantum theory, the fundamental theory ofmatter is that individual events at the subatomic
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