PHI 2100 EXAM 2 STUDY GUIDE Dual Process Theory theory that we have two different systems for reasoning that strongly impact decision making System 1 fast automatic effortless intuitive capable of multitasking Limitations has biases doesn t do well with logic or statistics System 2 slow requires concentration and effort Limitations can be lazy problems with self control Heuristic an approach to problem solving that takes into account one s personal experiences Substitution when presented with a difficult question our brain would rather change the question than have to kick in system 2 use any effort Law of Small Numbers smaller samples have a higher likelihood of giving extreme outcomes this leads to system 1 creating causal explanations rather than analyzing the statistics Halo Effect the tendency to like dislike everything about a person future opinions are tainted by first impressions Frequency vs Absolute Spread Frequency the statistical propensity represented by a percentage Absolute Spread the difference between number of times something happens and the number of times it doesn t Gamblers Fallacy the belief that because you ve gotten one outcome so many times that your next one will probably be different false idea that things need to even out Hot Hand Fallacy inferring causation or intentionality in any pattern Hindsight Bias easy explanations we come up with after something has already happened Avoid these by asking yourself if the opposite had happened could I have explained that too And could I have predicted this before it happened Anchoring Effect happens when one s estimate of a quantity is closer to a particular value that was previously considered happens as an adjustment they consider the original value then adjust up and down until they come to an agreement conclusion sometimes happens when you hear the value in a sentence system 1 imagines the sentence to be true and activates compatible thoughts to combat anchoring effects focus on the value given and find arguments against it Availability Heuristic we tend to think that events are more probable to the extent that they are available to memory Availability Cascade availability provides a heuristic for judgment other than frequency the importance of something can also be judged by the emotional charge that one carries with it Affect Heuristic how our preferences can influence our beliefs about how risky or beneficial something is Optional Stopping when we critically scrutinize only the evidence against our beliefs and don t do the same for evidence supporting our beliefs BASE RATES Average of times something occurs Average of times its might occur Steps 1 Figure out what conditional probability you want 2 Create a population of 10 000 3 Figure out base rate in example how many are drug users 5 of 4 Of those who have F how many will show E of the drug users how many 10 000 500 people will test 80 of 500 400 5 Of those who don t have F how many will show E of those who aren t drug users how many will test 20 of 9 500 1 900 6 Calculate from step 4 from step 4 from step 5 400 400 1 900 17 4 Representative Heuristic we tend to make judgments by using stereotypes or our idea of representative X Conjunction Fallacy a more specific demanding description that fits a stereotype is seen as more probably than a less specific broader stereotype base rates are better for probably than representativeness because in representativeness we often confuse plausibility for probability to ensure that your probably estimates are as accurate as possible you should anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate and question the reliability and relevance of your evidence Regression to the Mean idea that if someone has an extreme trait the next person will probably be closer to average reasoning errors occur when we try to give an explanation for what happened rather than identifying it as regression to the mean Formulas Algorithms generally better at predicting future events than humans because we especially experts try to be clever and outsmart the system when in reality a simple basic formula is the only thing necessary Confirmation Bias tendency to attend to evidence that confirms our beliefs while ignoring evidence that doesn t Broken leg Rule some events or features might be sufficient to override the formula these events are rare Expert Intuition using skills to quickly recognize something without necessarily knowing what we recognize or why we recognize it we can tell if someone has expert intuition if 1 They acquired the skill in an environment that was regular to be 2 And If the person learned these regularities through prolonged predictable practice Over Confidence we have more faith in our intuitions than we should and how much we trust our intuitions isn t a guide to their accuracy