CH 6 Reading IPPC Climate Change 2014 IPCC Overarching Ideas and Main Concepts A 1 Observed Impacts Vulnerability and Exposure Climate changes cause impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans In many regions changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems o This affects water resources in terms of quantity and quality o Glaciers continue to shrink worldwide Affecting runoff and water resources downstream o Climate change is causing permafrost warming and thawing in high latitude regions and high elevation regions Species that have shifted their geographic ranges seasonal activities migration patterns abundances and species interactions b c of climate change o Terrestrial species o Freshwater species o Marine species of regions and crops Negative impacts on crop yields due to climate change in studies covering a wide range Climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified e g by using statistical tests by changes in the mean and or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period typically decades or longer Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC in its Article 1 defines climate change as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes Hazard The potential occurrence of a natural or human induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life injury or other health impacts as well as damage and loss to property infrastructure livelihoods service provision ecosystems and environmental resources In this report the term hazardusually refers to climate related physical events or trends or their physical impacts Exposure The presence of people livelihoods species or ecosystems environmental functions services and resources infrastructure or economic social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected Vulnerability The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt Impacts Effects on natural and human systems In this report the term impacts is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change Impacts generally refer to effects on lives livelihoods health ecosystems economies societies cultures services and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems including floods droughts and sea level rise are a subset of impacts called physical impacts Risk The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain recognizing the diversity of values Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability exposure and hazard see Figure SPM 1 In this report the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks of climate change impacts Adaptation The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects In human systems adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities In some natural systems human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects Transformation A change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems Within this summary transformation could reflect strengthened altered or aligned paradigms goals or values towards promoting adaptation for sustainable development including poverty reduction Resilience The capacity of social economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function identity and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation learning and transformation The degree of certainty in each key finding of the assessment is based on o the type of evidence o amount of evidence o quality of evidence o consistency of evidence The summary terms to describe evidence are limited medium or robust and agreement low medium or high Confidence in the validity of a finding synthesizes the evaluation of evidence and agreement o Levels of confidence qualifiers Low Very low Medium High Very high virtually certain 99 100 probability extremely likely 95 100 very likely 90 100 likely 66 100 more likely than not 50 100 about as likely as not 33 66 unlikely 0 33 very unlikely 0 10 extremely unlikely 0 5 exceptionally unlikely 0 1 People who are socially economically culturally politically institutionally or otherwise marginalized are especially vulnerable to climate change and also to some adaptation and mitigation responses medium evidence high agreement Impacts from recent climate related extremes cyclones and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability very high confidence such as heat waves droughts floods o Impacts of such climate related extremes include alteration of ecosystems disruption of food production and water supply damage to infrastructure and settlements morbidity and mortality and consequences for mental health and human well being For countries at all levels of development these impacts are consistent with a significant lack of preparedness for current climate variability in some sectors Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change medium evidence high agreement o Large scale violent conflict harms assets that facilitate adaptation including