1 of 20 Introduction to Realism Lecture 01 12 2016 Realism often spoken about in terms of power Another view focus less on power and more on security only way to guarantee survival is to enhance security Realists focus on the state and interactions between states Historical Realists Thucydides Niccol Machiavelli Thomas Hobbes Carl von Clausewitz I Classical Realism This term comes from Hans Morgenthau Politics Among Nations 1948 A Response to US Idealism II Neo Realism Kenneth Waltz Architect of American Idealism is President Woodrow Wilson President during 1st World War Believed that world s problems could be xed war happened because of poor leadership and poorly organized states Promote spread of democracy more sensible and less prone to war increase communication between states reinforce respect of each state s sovereignty Morgenthau thought that idealism was naive and that world affairs is not a system that could be perfected Realists found that war is a natural part of the system war will not stop just because we start talking to each other Agreed with idealists that there was poor leadership and poorly organized states but this could not be xed because states seek power States are re ection of their leadership Power hungry leader power hungry state To avoid war the state must prepare for war Less likely to be attacked if strong and powerful B Pursuit of Power realpolitik power politics More formalized theory of international affairs this is the dominant version of realism Developed by Kenneth Waltz Theory of International Politics 1979 Shift away from the focus on POWER to a focus on SECURITY Waltz disagreed with Morgenthau and the classical realists B Assumptions A Neo Realism also known as Structural Realism States are not singularly after power they are more concerned with their survival focus on the structure of the system how are the states aligned Waltz diminished the role of the leader the particular leader is not what drives the state The STRUCTURE drives the actions of the state 1 States are Rational Unitary Actors States have to help themselves self help Nobody else is looking out for the state s best interest so they must guarantee their own security and survival This is the goal of every state There is no overarching governing body in the international system 2 States Seek Security 3 Anarchy 2 of 20 C Balance of Power War might be natural to the system but there are things we can do to enhance our prospects of peace Realist would say that the best thing we can do to achieve peace is to have a balance of power 1 Alliances 2 Bandwagoning Alliances have to be done the right way to be positive Example of alliance done the wrong way Weaker power offers help to major power in hope of protection Song dynasty has much but not much military power They started looking for a strong military power nearby and allied with Jurchens 3 Balancing Jurchens discovered Song s weakness and then took over half of Song s land Same thing happened Song dynasty then decided to bandwagon with the Mongols Opposite of balancing because it creates unbalanced power force One major power on one side and multiple smaller powers on other side to balance it out If the sides are equally balanced then when you re weighing the risks you realize it is too risky to engage in the con ict This serves as a deterrent and diminishes chance of war Miscalculation has negative consequences Realists are in favor of alliances so far as they serve the interests of the state never in favor of xed alliances 1 Uni Polarity Hegemonic Stability Theory D Polarity 2 Bi Polarity 3 Multi Polarity US is the single pole of power a realist would expect other powers to align against us to balance us 2 poles of power US and Soviet Union good majority of the world aligned itself with these 2 various poles Happens when we have multiple poles of power realists think that this is a very insecure time alliances unclear and can be shifted too many players and too many poles increased insecurity Realists think long term cooperation is dif cult under conditions of anarchy no enforcement They would like to see balance which is the ideal con guration for peace Realist will not put power in hands of an international organization E Security Dilemma Prisoner s Dilemma Game Theory Israel for example Two prisoners each have to decide whether to confess or not confess to the crime If both do not confess each get 1 year in jail If Prisoner A confesses and Prisoner B does not A gets out and B gets life 3 of 20 If Prisoner B confesses and Prisoner A does not B gets out and A gets life If both confess each get 20 years in jail Odds are both prisoners will confess Best case scenario you get out worst case scenario you get 20 years Relative Gains Zero Sum might be gaining at other s expense Increase one s own without seeing the other side bene t Absolute Gains Non zero Sum everybody gets something and we might all be able to bene t 4 of 20 Realism The Origins of Major power Wars Lecture 01 14 2016 I WW1 New power in the middle of Europe in 1871 when Germany uni es Structure changes because of the new state Uneasiness about the new state which causes a security dilemma A Germany and the Security Dilemma All of Germany s neighbors may team up against Germany If Germany stayed weak it would be vulnerable Otto von Bismarck determined that Germany would be strong Responsible for unifying Germany A strong Germany is a threat to Germany s neighbors B Balance of Power and Reasons for its Demise 2 alliances form to balance Europe out 1 Power Transition Germany Austria Hungary Bulgaria and Turkey on one side Central Powers U K Russia France Italy Albania Greece Serbia Romania and Belgium on the other side Triple Entente Germany is rising power Great Britain is declining power Realists say power transition is very insecure time and time when we are likely to see war things become unclear and unstable The purpose of preventative war is to prevent a power from rising Russia was massive and only getting stronger because of industrialization Germany was seeking a preventative war against Russia to prevent them from getting stronger down the road 2 Russia and Preventative War II Interwar to WWII New states created after WWI attempts to cure nationalistic and ethnic tensions A Pyrrhic Victory B Balance of Power C League of Nations 1919 France and U K came out victorious but it came at such a cost that it was not much of a victory No spoils of war Only scars and