Fall 2015 Exam 2 Study Guide their significance Bargaining Model This exam guide is subject to change prior to 7pm on Wednesday October 21 2015 Be sure to be able to explain the concepts involved in the following questions and N B There will be nothing on the exam from Power Transition Theory Two actors bargaining over a deal Ideal points for both are at the end of their distribution Because war carries cost states don t get P but instead something in their bargaining range of both states The overlap is the bargaining range which is what both sides desire over war Intuition of fearon because war is costly the bargaining range must always exist This leads us to then why does war occur Because bargaining failure 1 Incomplete info about resolve or capabilities and an incentive to misrepresent 2 Problems of credible commitment can lead to preventative war states cant credibly commit to these agreements because of anarchy no one to stop states from going back on deals 3 Indivisibilities not a separate issue cause but part of commitment problems if the issue they are fighting over is not visible there will not be a bargaining range however it is just a specialized commitment problem What is the key observation about war from Fearon 1995 War is costly therefore the bargaining range must always exist Why is war ex post inefficient Both sides would have been better off if they could have achieved a resolution within the bargaining range because war is costly Also agreements in the bargaining range contain outcomes that are preferable to war for both sides What does Fearon 1995 say about existing neorealist theories of war He says they are incomplete Conflict of interest states has conflicts of interest all the time however only occasionally are they settled with conflict Anarchy how does anarchy prevent states from reaching an agreement Preventative war attack now to prevent loss later No why not reach a long term peace agreement War occurs due to uncertainty why not just communicate What is the bargaining range Why does the bargaining range exist The bargaining range is the area on the bargaining model that both players would prefer rather than actually going to war Area between each players expected utility of war It exists because it is believed that anything in the bargaining range is better than war because war is so costly What is each actor s preferred outcome To reach an agreement within there preferred bargaining range but primarily their preferred outcome is at the end of the opposite side of the model so aka everything What are the three forms of bargaining failure Incomplete info single moment of time arises when there is not enough info in the system regarding the resolve and capabilities of the oppositions as well as the fact that there is an incentive for states to misrepresent Credible commitment problems multiple moments of time arise as states cannot credibly commit to not using force in the future as we live under anarchy and shit changes Indivisibilities is a specialized commitment problem that arises when the issue states are frustrated over is not visible or measurable so there is no bargaining range which leads to conflict What are information problems Why not reveal information Information problems occur when there is no enough information regarding the opposition s resolve and capabilities as well as the fact that states have an incentive to misrepresent What are commitment issues Credible commitment problems arise when states cannot credibly promise to not use military force in the future This is often due to changes in a states power over time It increases the likelihood of war because a state cannot commit to stick to an agreement it makes today when in the future it may be more powerful and have more bargaining leverage Commitment problems make the bargaining range change over time which makes war more likely Mechanisms that lead to commitment problems 1 Change in states power over time 2 Shift in power between domestic factions 3 Cost of preserving the status quo Issue indivisibility What does Fearon 1995 say about this mechanism When there are not possible divisions within the bargaining space Example issue of Jerusalem being claimed as capital and holy city by multiple faiths According to Powell 2006 what are the various mechanisms that can create commitment issues 3 cost of preserving the status quo 1 change in states power over time 2 shift in power between domestic factions What does Powell 2006 mean when he says the cost of maintaining the status quo can lead to war Domestic Politics and Conflict What are audience costs The domestic price a leader would pay for making foreign threats and then backing down Leaders who rely on their audience to stay in power are more likely to make credible threats Audience costs increase the cost of backing down from a conflict public cares about reputation and anything that can tarnish it What are the primary implications of audience costs Democracies should be less likely to bluff If a democracy makes a threat believe it Non democracies will have trouble sending costly signals If a democracy makes a threat the other state is more likely to back down because a democracy will likely follow through with that threat as they are more vulnerable to audience costs What are the main criticisms of audience costs from Snyder and Borghard 1 Leaders prefer ambiguous threats not obvious clear cut threats 2 Domestic audiences care more about policy substance than about consistency between leader s words and deeds 3 Targets of democratic threats do not perceive audience cost dynamics in the same way that the audience cost theorists do What is the primary causal concept from Crisher and Souva 2015 Why would a weak state attack a strong state Because of political bias meaning that that cost of conflict for the leader is less than that of the public person Political bias is present when a leader has lower costs for conflict than the median member of public If a leader is already likely to lose power high domestic problems there is little additional cost to initiating conflict Leaders and Institutions What is the selectorate The winning coalition The selectorate is all people that have a say in choosing the government in the US this would be all eligible voters The winning coalition is the members of the selectorate whose support is essential to keep the incumbent leadership in office What is the loyalty norm People stay loyal in the