What s an argument Bishop s PHIL 2100 Test 1 Study Guide o Argument set of premises that gives us reason to believe a conclusion What s the difference between a threat a bribe and an argument Give an example of each o Threats motivate arguments reason o Threat Believe this or I ll fire you o Bribe Believe this and I ll give you lots of money o Argument Socrates is a man All men are mortal Socrates is mortal Argument identification o Premises that support conclusion whether True or False o Good argument w false conclusion If the moon is made of green cheese then there are mice on the moon The moon is made of green cheese So there are mice on the moon o Bad argument with true premises conclusion The sky is blue The ocean is Blue SO The lake is Blue o Bad argument with a true conclusion w premises that support the conclusion Bishop is the best philosophy teacher The best philosophy teacher is ALSO the best overall teacher SO the best overall teacher is Bishop What are the two ways to show that an argument is a bad argument Give one example of an argument that fails in each of those ways but not the other o ONE premises don t support conclusion TWO Premises are false NOT plausible ONE violets are blue Roses are red SO God exists TWO Squares are Circles If Squares Circles god exists SO god Identify premises conclusion exists o Premises Statements that LEAD to conclusion o Conclusion FOLLOWS from premises Argument analysis You should ask Are premises plausible Do premises support conclusion Moral claims vs Descriptive claims o Moral Claims Claims about our moral rights or duties or about what morally ought to be the case Examples I ought to help the poor Abortion is morally o Descriptive Claims Claims about describes what is was or will be Descriptive claims can be true or false Examples Grass is pink Bishop is 6 feet tall o Moral claims You should feed the hungary o Prudential Practical You should wear a seat belt o Legal You should not J walk Ambiguous claims Explain claims Requirements on concrete moral arguments Explain o Lead to difficulties always distinguish between moral legal and prudential o For a concrete argument s premises to support its conclusion the argument will have to consist of both moral and descriptive premises Argument completion exercises Argument that fails due to an ambiguous premise Averages The significance of bell curve distributions o Mean Arithmetic average of a range of values Add values divide by of values o Median The midpoint value in a range of values o Mode The value that occurs most frequently in a range of values Be able to identify these different ways of lying with numbers time frame ambiguity vagueness o Time Frame must account for inflation nominal vs real dollars o Ambiguity no comparison comparison 50 better o Vagueness no fixed standards No Comparison Comparison no fixed standards to compare to No fixed standard Base rates ignored the of relevant background events Changes in methods of reporting Relevant differences in populations compared Changes in Cost Inflation for investments Taxes too Real Accounts for inflation Nominal Does NOT account for inflation Be able to lie with numbers yourself in each of these ways Be able to explain the lies 2 Principles of Good Graphs Proportionality Labeling o Proportionality Incriments increase decrease equally o Labeling Labels are represented equally relevantly Ways to mislead with bar graphs Don t start at zero Irregular intervals along vertical axis Irregular intervals along horizontal axis Streching scrunching graphs Ignoring inflation Explain why picture graphs are always misleading o Can be manipulated by differing scales incriments What determines the strength of an argument based on samples o Random Relative Representative What are some of the ways to get representative samples o Pick random people large amount from relavant population Explain bad argument based on unrepresentative sample with examples o Half of the people at Reggae Music Festivals smoke pot SO half of all people o of the 4 people I asked around campus said they liked sardine pizza SO of smoke pot FSU likes sardine pizza Examples Be able to figure out whether an argument based on samples is a good one Be able to identify causal claims o Causal Claim X causes Y must know what happens when X is present and when X is absent Diagnostic Reasoning Backward causal reasoning What X caused Y Understand what one must do in order to reason well about whether X causes Y o Premises must support conclusion Must be true plausible Control Group significant deference Examples Be able to recognize when an instance of reasoning requires a control Be able to describe what that control would be o Any every sample test needs to have a control group Explain the problem of hidden data with examples o control condition is absent Control is NEEDED for accurate data Ex snickers causes zits need to find people NOT eating snickers too Explain the 3 experimental designs their strengths their drawbacks o Random Start with the relevant population Randomly choose a control an experimental group Introduce X to the experimental group This is the best sort of study you can run Problem There can be serious moral and practical difficulties o Prospective Pick out an experimental population w A B C D X Match it to a control population w A B C D but NOT X This solves the morality problem with randomized studies Problem of confounding factors might also differ in other relevant respects o Retrospective Pick out a past experimental population w A B C D Y the effect Match it to a control population w A B C D but NOT Y Look for X Preferable to prospective studies when dealing with somewhat rare conditions And when we don t know what is causing a condition Problem of confounding factors Show how to set up each design to test a particular causal claim o Random relevant representative group Identify problems with controlled studies o Confounding factors They might also differ in other relevant respects So some rival causal agent NOT X might not be equally represented in the experimental and control populations o Ethical Practical Moral issues Simple Diagnosis box Problems where there is only one error accuracy rate o If you test positive on an 80 accurate drug test that does NOT mean there is an 80 chance you do drugs It DOES mean that IF you DO do drugs THEN it will tell say you do drugs 80 of the time MUST know the base rate of what you re looking for If you tests