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CHAPTER 13 A weather warning indicates that hazardous weather is either immi nent or occurring within the forecast area A weather watch would probably be issued for which of the following conditions there is a chance for tornadoes tomorrow An analysis is a surface or upper level chart that interprets the present weather patterns A forecast of an extended period of dry weather would be made for a region beneath an upper level ridge Suppose it is warm and raining and a cold front is moving toward your location Directly behind the cold front it is cold and snowing Still fur ther behind the front the weather is cold and clearing If the front is scheduled to pass your area in 6 hours a persistence forecast for your area for 12 hours from now would be warm and raining The least accurate forecast method of predicting the weather two days into the future during changeable weather conditions is usually the persistence forecast Weather forecast that predicts that the future weather will be the same as the present weather is called persistence forecast Which forecasting method assumes that weather systems will move in the same direction and at the same speed as they have been moving steady state trend forecast A persistence forecast could be quite accurate when you are posi tioned in the middle of a large stationary air mass A weather forecast for the immediate future that employs the trend method is called nowcasting By examining a surface map the movement of a surface low pressure area can be predicted based upon the all of the above on test Predicting the weather by weather types employs which forecasting method analogue A forecast method that compares past weather maps and weather patterns to those of the present is the analogue method The forecasting technique that produces several versions of a forecast model each beginning with slightly different weather information to re flect errors in the measurements is called ensemble forecasting Suppose that where you live the middle of January is typically several degrees warmer than the rest of the month If you forecast this Janu ary thaw for the middle of next January you would have made a cli matological forecast A probability forecast that calls for a 40 percent chance of rain means that there is a 40 chance of rain that any random place in a forecasted area can receive measurable rain Which of the following is presently a problem with modern day weather predictions All of the above on test An accurate forecast may or may not show skill For a forecast to show skill it must be better than a persistence fore cast or a climatological forecast A prog is the final forecast chart representing the atmosphere at a specified future time called a prognostic chart prog The forecasting of weather by a computer is known as numerical weather predication The greatest improvement in forecasting skill during the past 30 years has been made in forecasting sever storm warnings for hurricanes and tornadoes Automated Surface Observing Systems ASOS measure wind tem perature pressure cloud base height and runway visibility at various airports A wind that changes direction in a counterclockwise sense with in creasing height is called a n backing wind Warm advection is most likely to occur from the surface up to the 500mb level ahead of an advancing warm front The National Weather Service system of watches warnings and advi sories generally don t address weather conditions which limit visibility false Suppose there are two cloud layers above you The lower cloud layer is moving from a westerly direction while the higher cloud layer is moving from a northwesterly direction From this observation you con clude that the wind is back with height and cold advection is occurring between the cloud layers When making a forecast a meteorologist typically examines surface charts upper air charts radar displays satellite imagery all of the above on test Modern computer forecasting models have increasingly smaller grid spacing This presents which of the following problems much more computations are needed Very short range forecasts often utilize which of the following forecast methods subjective interpretations of surface observations satellite imagery and Doppler radar information Lines connecting points of equal pressure change are called Isallobars Which below is NOT a condition associated with an omega high dont know answer choices A comma cloud is a band of organized cumuliform clouds that looks like a comma on a satellite photograph If you wanted to make a persistence forecast of minimum and maxi mum temperatures for a particular city which type of chart would be most helpful a surface weather map rising air CHAPTER 14 All thunderstorms require The initial stage of an ordinary thunderstorm is the cumulus stage Ordinary thunderstorms only last about one hour and begin to dissi pate when when the downdraft spreads throughout the cloud and cuts off the updraft An ordinary thunderstorm is a scattered or isolated storm that is not severe Downdrafts spread throughout a thunderstorm during the dissipating stage An ordinary thunderstorm is most intense during the mature stage The most likely time for an ordinary thunderstorm to form is after noon Severe thunderstorms are different from ordinary thunderstorms in that severe thunderstorms have a tilted updraft in the mature stage A supercell storm is an enormous thunderstorm that lasts for several hours Severe thunderstorms are capable of producing large hail tornadoes flash floods all of the above on test In a severe thunderstorm hail may fall from the base of the anvil fall from the bottom of the cloud be tossed out the side of cloud all of the above on test A Mesoscale Convective Complex is actually individual thunderstorms that grow into a large long lasting weather system Thunderstorms which produce tornadoes have rotating updrafts The downdraft in an ordinary thunderstorm is created mainly by evaporating raindrops that make the air cold and heavy The cloud that forms along the leading edge of a gust front is called a roll cloud The leading edge of a thunderstorm s cold downdraft is known as a gust front The small area of high pressure created by the cold heavy air of a thunderstorm downdraft is called mesohigh Which of the following would you NOT expect to observe during the passage of a gust front increases in temperature A small thunderstorm cloud with virga falling out of its base and blow ing dust at the ground could


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FSU MET 1010 - CHAPTER 13

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