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Final Exam Study GuidePHI 2100-01Concepts- you should be able to explain and recognize examples of:Look over the concepts from last test such as Base Rates and Fallacies.***Test is not cumulative***Representativeness Heuristic: We tend to make judgments by using stereotypes (our idea of the representative X). Stereotypes have a negative connotation, but we can’t get along in the world without using stereotypes. Clustering Illusion—we expect chance sequences to be less streaky than they really are; therefore, we’re surprised by how streaky random sequences are. (Note: This is why gamblers believe it in hot & cold streaks when it comes to gambling. We are SURPRISED by how streaky chance sequences are. Base Rate Paradox—Conjunction Fallacy—a more specific/demanding description that fits our stereotype will be seen as more probable than a less specific/demanding description that does not fit our stereotype.Easy Explanation—deals with Hindsight Bias—we are naturally story tellers, and so we are very good convincing but unsupported explanations for things after they occur. - It gives you a FALSE sense of understanding. - Whenever you offer an explanation for some piece of behavior, you should ask yourself two questions.o 1. Consider the opposite: if something else had occurred, could I have explained that too? If Yes: probably an “easy” explanation that offers a false sense of understanding.o 2. Prediction: Could I have predicted this BEFORE it happened? If NO: probably an “easy” explanation that offers a false sense of understanding.o Examples: John’s mom is a bartender. John worked at the bar during high school. If after college he goes to work at the bar, people can explain it as follows: he missed the bar. If he doesn’t, people can explain it as follows: it’s the only job he’s ever had (he hates it). Regression Fallacy—ignore regression to the mean + easy explanation—we often explain regression effects with unnecessary causal factors; whenever occurrences of X vary arounda mean, if X1 is extreme, X2 is likely to be closer to the mean. Availability Heuristic (convenient memory)—we tend to think events are more probable to the extent they are more available to memory. Often the availability heuristic works well. Often, events are available to memory because they really do happen a lot. BUT: sometimes, our memory is selective and we remember things that are VIVID or DRAMATIC or ANNOYING of FIT W/OUR THEORIES.- This tends to happen when events are two-sided- Two-sided events: both potential outcomes would be equally noticed or remembered; one-sided events: only one outcome would be noticed, remain in memory.- Some events that are inherently one sided: o Hedonic asymmetries —only one outcome arouses emotion or requires an acton your part. Ex. “all of the buses are heading the wrong direction”o Pattern asymmetries —you tend to remember events that stand out, or seem to be the result of a “pattern.” Ex. Always saying that you woke up in the middle of the night at “1:23” very often. o Definitional asymmetries : one-sided almost by definition. Ex. “I can always tell when someone has had plastic surgery (when you do detect it, you notice and remember, but if you can’t tell that someone has had plastic surgery thenyou don’t have any information about it, usually). Biased Interpretation—we often interpret data that contradicts our pet beliefs as BAD LUCK or as ALMOST CONFIRMING our views. Ex. Person with hot hands misses: we would say “he just missed it!”Fortune Cookie Problem—no specific prediction; the prediction is so vague and general that it could be applied to almost everyone; NO experience would disconfirm your pet belief; NO time frame and vague. - Real fortune cookies—negotiations move along smoothly, the outcome is favorable, and you will see through the illusion to the plain truth. - Ask yourself: is there any experience I could have that would convince me my pet belief was false? If not, you may be the victim of the fortune cookie problem. - Ex. “good things come to those who wait.” The time frame is ambiguous—eventuallygood things happen to most people. Optional Stopping—When dealing with Pet belief:- Negative evidencecritical scrutinyexplain away. STOP: No more ciritcal scrutiny- Positive evidenceSTOP: No more critical scrutiny. - Are you equally critical of reasons that tend to support your view of something that is important to you (i.e. politics, abortion, etc.) as you are of reasons that tend to undermine your view? PROBABLY NOT which Then: you are probably guilty of optional stopping.- Note: you’re not IGNORING negative evidence, you are rather treating negative and positive evidence DIFFERENTLY (so it would be unfair to criticize you for being close-minded, on the other hand, it might be easier to correct our mistakes if we were just ignoring negative evidence. Correction would just involve attending to all the relevant evidence. - When given ambiguous, inconsistent data, people ended up being MORE CONFIDENT & MORE EXTREME in their opinions. - Ex. My belief that video games don’t incline people to violence. Any evidence that it does, I critically scrutinize. Any evidence that fits my belief, I accept. • Sharpening & Leveling—Deals with second-hand testimony; - Testimony is sharpened : main point is emphasized. - Testimony is leveled : context, details, qualifications are de-emphasized or ignored.- Secondhand accounts become simpler/ “cleaner” stories.- Familiar Examples:o Experience w/ newspaper stories of events you’ve attended.o Individuals who you’ve heard stories about. Often disappointed to meet them.- Example: One night my buddy drove his truck into the side of our house. I tried to explain to my mom what happened over the phone. When she finally saw the damage, she was relieved. - When we meet people that we have heard about from a friend (in either a positive or negative manner), we are often disappointed because they seem less extreme than we were led to believe.o One reason: when we tell stories about a person, the story is organized around the person and his actions rather than the context of the situation. So – the person and his actions are sharpened, the context and mitigating circumstances tend to be leveled. -Expected Value— The expected value tells you what your average (mean) value is per decision given in terms of money.So the


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FSU PHI 2100 - Final Exam Study Guide

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