International Politics Wednesday September 07 2011 12 32 PM Lecture approach Understanding Scientific approach Applying Solving problems Only about an hour NYU view on intl poli Logical rigor Not much about debates Strategic interaction 1 2 3 a Game theory Recitations TA gives hw and give answers None this week 1 2 Homework Question set a week Grading 40 final dec21 12pm 15 rec homework participation 30 midterm oct 24th 1230pm 15 five page paper due dec 14 Grades on a curve Top 20 get A Every 20 down to A B 5 page paper By October 31st submit idea to TA Office hours Monday 10 11 Course Pack Available from New University Copy and Graphics 11 Waverly Place Get this Intl Politics lectures Page 1 Lecture 9 12 11 Monday September 12 2011 12 28 PM Definition Intl poli process by which foreign policy leaders balance ambition to pursue particular policy objectives against their need to avoid internal and external threats to political survival Domestic vs International A Domestic a Politicians can be selfish i ii International politics B Concerned about staying in office Campaigning a Old fashioned view i By analogy and not scientific 1 House on fire everyone gets to exit End justifies means ii iii iv Country first To ensure country survival from colonialism Cons 1 2 What s actually best for country Domestic policy can affect v Reason for this view 1 2 Selfish view could be same as country needs Simplifies analysis of politics a b Ex Needs of congress pres people etc can be lined up Don t have to create complex political theorys 3 Only need to focus on inter national politics rather than foreign domestic a Only need to know macro don t need details citizens house etc b New international poli view i Politician have personal political goal 1 In contrast from old view what the politician does affects time in office a b Citizen s needs Revolt coup de tat ii iii iv Balance personal idealology vs need to stay in office Different politicians need to do dif things to stay in office International politics is dependant and related to domestic affairs Example of domestic influence international politics 1 a Actors in international politics c Electoral rules affect intl poli i Anyone who makes decisions 1 Old view a The state i 2 New view Entire arms of gov pres senate congress One Because everyone agrees on everything a Opening the black box i Legislature pres the people Domestic relations along with international The great powers along with smaller countries b c i Civil wars along with intercountry wars One International relation Present day example Mubarack staying in power A a Policy making process in regards to intl poli i Old view 1 President gets shot he goes into office Keeps views of people 2 ii New view 1 Has personal goals a b c Yet not as important as internal and external threats i Coup de tat Direct finances to parts of military that can overthrow him Become pro israel usa Becomes biggest receiver of foreign aid Aid goes to military ii i 2 3 Doesn t do ideal policy just does what is necessary to stay in office Ignores the citizens a b c Not as much threat as military Throws people in jail Long run more discontent among the population B Obama a Policy i Idealology vs need to be re elected 1 Result in watered down health environmental financial etc policies Four Key Issues in this course Coordination 1 2 Distribution a b c a b c Trade aid judiciary naval commerce environmental WWII Questions What form it takes how it relates to domestic Country has finite of resources Disaster aid spending subsidies natural Aid to other countries i Support in international councils or policies 3 Monitoring a Old view nation to nation For agreements b i New view i Citizens on the gov 4 Sanctioning a For terms of agreements i WTO IMF b To deter bad behavior rarely actually carried out A Key Concepts Power a b c B Preferences Power is to politics as money is to economics Ability to do something you want them to do Quantifying power a b Wants of citizens politicians Predict effects when C Perceptions a Leaders view on others Intl Politics lectures Page 2 B Preferences a b Wants of citizens politicians Predict effects when C Perceptions a Leaders view on others i Makes difference on what the politician does D Analyze all concepts logically without 4 Sanctioning a For terms of agreements i WTO IMF b To deter bad behavior rarely actually carried out Intl Politics lectures Page 3 Lecture 9 14 11 Wednesday September 14 2011 12 31 PM Today s objective to understand systematic features of the international political environment Wars Democratic nations unlikely to go to war against each other A a Could be considered a law as in science Parts of scientific research of intl politics Theory hypothesis 1 a b c d Statement of relationship between causes and effect Ex democracy causes peace Causal theory i Form of social science B happens because of A A causes B Components of theory Cause and effect Assumptions i ii The effect of the change of indep on depend through the different forms of the values of each 1 2 3 1 2 3 Explicitly stating the conditions in which the relationship of A and B hold Must be stated for tenability of theory Rationality of actors must be stated as assumption Crazy people usually don t go up the ladder a Dependent Variable iii The thing that you are trying to explain B A value numerical not a monetary value war as 1 and peace as 0 iv Independent variable The cause Can be multiple values 1 2 v Nature of the relationship between variables 1 2 Example a Economic voting theory i Incumbent loses to challenger if economy is bad b Pres candidate is taller wins i ii Independent height Dependent winning the race 3 If relationship is opposite than what was assumed it is still a theory e Criteria of a good theory i Accuracy 1 2 3 4 5 Relationship between a and b should be stronger than chance More accurate then a previous theory Increased ability to explain relationship No theory needs to be 100 accurate Most are probabilistic ii Logical consistency 1 No internally contradictory a Ex before scientific way magentague all countries are status quo countries yet some countries seek power Contradictory 2 Mathematics prevalence in modern times iii Parsinuary iv 1 1 Occam s razor Non Spurious relationship Ex of spurious a causes b Third factor C is causing both a and b All factors that could affect B must be held constant a b c 2 Ex reverse causality a b c State a causes b Correlation causation Instrumental