International Politics POL UA 700 Professor Jenn Larson Class 4 February 6 2014 Strategic Interactions and Game Theory Today s Agenda 1 Intro to Game Theory 2 Prisoner s Dilemma 3 Chicken 4 Stag Hunt 5 Sequential Decisions and Credibility 6 Unpredictability Understanding Outcomes Actors have interests and interact with other actors Understanding the outcomes of interactions can be di cult Game theory helps us study strategic interactions Individual interests may lead actors to defect Defecting is adopting an uncooperative strategy that undermines the collective goal Incentives to defect magni ed by lack of trust perceptions of bad intent lack of information Barriers to Cooperation Incentives to defect magni ed by lack of trust perceptions of bad intent lack of information Barriers to Cooperation Individual interests may lead actors to defect Defecting is adopting an uncooperative strategy that undermines the collective goal Barriers to Cooperation Individual interests may lead actors to defect Defecting is adopting an uncooperative strategy that undermines the collective goal Incentives to defect magni ed by lack of trust perceptions of bad intent lack of information Best Response Strategy A plan to do as well as possible given one s expectations about the interests and actions of others Hence actors are purposive A best response strategy does not always guarantee that an actor will obtain its preferred outcome Best Response Strategies Hence actors are purposive A best response strategy does not always guarantee that an actor will obtain its preferred outcome Best Response Strategies Best Response Strategy A plan to do as well as possible given one s expectations about the interests and actions of others A best response strategy does not always guarantee that an actor will obtain its preferred outcome Best Response Strategies Best Response Strategy A plan to do as well as possible given one s expectations about the interests and actions of others Hence actors are purposive Best Response Strategies Best Response Strategy A plan to do as well as possible given one s expectations about the interests and actions of others Hence actors are purposive A best response strategy does not always guarantee that an actor will obtain its preferred outcome Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money both stay quiet both go free and split the money An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release An Example The Prisoner s Dilemma Two criminals robbed a bank and hid the money Both are caught by police but there is not enough evidence to convict them Separated and o ered the same deal rat the other guy out while he keeps quiet you go free and get the money he goes to jail stay quiet while the other guy rats you out you go to jail he goes free and gets the money rat him out while he rats you out both go to jail and split money upon release both stay quiet both go free and split the money Yet each has an incentive to rat out his accomplice Here ratting the other out is defection …
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