Chapter 2 Sources of Information Research vs experience Usually use personal or anecdotal information to make decisions EX How can you release anger Catharsis Reasons Against using experience alone 1 No comparison group need a control group ex Bloodletting 2 Experience is confounded confound confounds bad Confound alternate explanation for an outcome want to remove Ex People who survived bloodletting could have used a differen diet been younger etc But what about people who did recover Research is probabilistic explains a proportion of possible cases Not ever single case Can find exceptions to results in real life doesn t mean research is necessarily wrong Research vs Intuition Unfortunately intuition can be biased also Thinking the easy way accept conclusion because it makes sense but don t test it or think scientifically conclusion has a good story Example ulcers caused by stomach acid and stress NOT TRUE Present Present Bias easy to see what is present harder to notice what is absent from a situation ex Doctors notices when bloodletting led to recovery but didn t pay attention when no bloodletting led to recovery Do more people die from falling or fire Falling Availability heuristic pop up principle events that easily come to mind will guide our thinking Ex Always assume we get in slow line when shopping driving etc 1 Conformation bias cherry picking seeking and accepting only the evidence that supports what we already think and what we want to think Ex IQ test study came in took an IQ test gave them back false feedback put them in the waiting room w magazines involving IQ tests which did they pick up 2 Confirmatory hypothesis testing asking questions that are likely to give the desired or expected answers Ex Introvert extrovert study 3 Being over confident Searching Psych Literature Must read and understand the literature to know what research has been done and what questions are unanswered Science is a cumulative endeavor must look at past studies to continue into the future