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Montclair ECON 101 - Exam 2 Part 2

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David ManeiroExam 2 Part 2data=read.csv(file.choose(), header=TRUE)> library(ggplot2)> library(forecast)> library(tseries)> library(TSA)> mor=ts(data$MORTGAGE30US, frequency=12, start = c(1971,04))> autoplot(mor)+xlab("Year") + ylab("mor")1)the graph for monthly 30-year mortgage rates seems to be on a downward trend but does not seem to have any seasonality.2)> demor = decompose(mor, type="multiplicative")> plot(demor)3) Looking at the results of the multiplicative decomposition, it support the graphical interpretation from part a, as there is a downward trend begining after 2010 and the seasonal indices revert to the mean.4)> s1=demor$seasonal> plot(s1)> s1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug1971 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311972 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311973 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311974 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311975 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311976 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311977 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311978 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311979 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311980 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311981 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311982 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311983 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311984 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311985 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311986 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311987 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311988 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311989 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311990 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311991 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311992 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311993 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311994 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311995 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311996 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311997 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311998 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744311999 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312000 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312001 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312002 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312003 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312004 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312005 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312006 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312007 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312008 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312009 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312010 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312011 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312012 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312013 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312014 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312015 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312016 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312017 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312018 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.00744312019 0.9885739 0.9873114 0.9954333 1.0025061 1.0057304 1.0075053 1.0070414 1.0074431 Sep Oct Nov Dec1971 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831972 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831973 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831974 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831975 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831976 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831977 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831978 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831979 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831980 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831981 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831982 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831983 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831984 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831985 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831986 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831987 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831988 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831989 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831990 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831991 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831992 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831993 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831994 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831995 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831996 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831997 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831998 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554831999 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832000 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832001 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832002 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832003 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832004 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832005 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832006 1.0032564 1.0003765 0.9992738 0.99554832007


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