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¶V FRQGLWLRQV LPSURYHVZRUVHQV LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH RWKHU SDWLHQWV <RX ZDQW WR FRPSXWH WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW H[DFWO\ IRXU RI WKH ILYH SDWLHQWV DUH FXUHG :KDW SUREDELOLW\ PRGHO ZLOO \RX XVH IRU WKLV" $ 7KH ELQRPLDO PRGHO % 7KH %D\HV¶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
View Full Document