• Probability - a number between 0 and 1 that describes proportion of times an outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions⁃ Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run, but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run⁃ describes the long term regularity of events• Random - when individual outcomes are uncertain but there is a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions⁃ somewhat predictable⁃ Random does not mean "haphazard"⁃ random describes a kind of order that emerges ONLY IN THE LONG RUN• How to figure the probability of something happening?⁃ Empirical (or experimental):⁃ Repeat experiment many times⁃ Calculate proportion of each time outcome occurs⁃ Theoretical:⁃ Make assumptions based on a set of theories⁃ Calculate probability based on this set of theories⁃ Personal Probability⁃ Personal judgment⁃ Not necessarily based on any set of theories or previous observations⁃ Not limited to repeatable settings ⁃ Useful because we base decisions on them⁃ Can't be said to be right or wrong⁃ Simply expressing individual opinion⁃ What one choses to believe (personal belief)• We can think about probability:⁃ as the number of ways an outcome can happen divided by the total number of possible outcomes⁃ Probability of an outcome = (# of ways for an outcome to occur) / (total number of outcomes)• Large Law of Numbers (LLN) If a random phenomenon with numerical outcomes is repeated many times independently, the mean of observed outcomes approaches the expected
View Full Document
Unlocking...