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UCSB ENVS 106 - Lecture 03 Merchants of Doubt Chapter 2_POST

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Slide 1Slide 2The Cold War (1947-1991)Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars)Carl SaganSlide 6SDI Budget PassesWhy did the dinosaurs go extinct, but mammals survive??Dinosaur ExtinctionNuclear WinterNuclear WinterNuclear Winter?Scientific ModelsSaganThe George C. Marshall InstituteA Wholesale Attack on ScienceScience and IdeologySlide 18“Crawl Out Through the Fallout” – Sheldon Allman(1960) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPzICHxXoQ This song makes light of the threat of nuclear war…Many people don’t like thinking about the threat, or want to downplay it’s significance.Merchants of DoubtChapter 2Strategic Defense, Phony Facts, and the Creation of the George C. Marshall InstituteThe Cold War (1947-1991)•A state of geopolitical tension between the generally “Western” powers, primarily the United States, and “Eastern Powers”, primarily the Soviet Union and its satellites•No large scale conflict between the US•Various backings of “proxy wars” among smaller countriese.g., Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba•Propaganda Campaigns•Mutual Spying•Arms Race – the continual threat of Nuclear WarLimiting Factor: Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)1970’s New Policy Approach: détente Ease tensions, promote trust, limit/reduce arms•Some hawks remain, and do not like the idea of détente: the formation of “Team B”The Americans is an interesting TV series that attempts to characterize the spy situation between the US and USSRStrategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars)•Install weapons in space that could destroy incoming ballistic missiles, shielding the US from (those forms of) attack •Some experts thought it was technically infeasible•Some thought it would increase tension b/w US and USSRDuring construction, risk of nuclear war increasesShielded nation might strike•Others thought it would undermine the anti-nuclear weapons movementsCarl Sagan•Leading popularizer of Science in the American PublicHis TV Series Cosmos (1980) was deemed "a watershed moment for science-themed television programming"Promoted Environmental Awareness•Challenged SDIIneffectiveMay provoke USSRIncite warEncourage further growth in the arms race (if 10% of warheads get through, you want more warheads)Testing would require shooting missiles at ourselves•Helped to launch a campaign to get scientists to boycott SDI fundingClip on Sagan’s commentary regarding the prospect of nuclear war is available on Gauchospace!Robert Jastrow•Also a successful popularizer of Science•An advocate for space missions and research•Sagan’s move to boycott infuriates Jastrow•Argued that USSR was in a position of strategic superiority, and was developing its own missile defense system•USSR could "bring all of Western Europe under Soviet hegemony."A bit exaggerated No beam testing facilitiesEvidence that USSR tested non-acoustic submarine detection systems, but no evidence that these systems were deployed. Conclusion: The tests must have been successful, and the Soviets deployed them without us knowing!In line with CIA intelligence at the time, interviews with Soviet leadership in 1995 confirmed that the USSR was to avoid nuclear weapons at all costsSDI Budget Passes•Jastrow, Team B, and others prevail•$60 billion budget approved by congress for SDI and successor program (~175 billion today)Why did the dinosaurs go extinct, but mammals survive??A. Mammals eventually evolved bigger brains and social grouping, which allowed them to outcompete dinosaurs for resourcesB. An asteroid from space destroyed them, but small mammals survivedC. A mass pandemic of the Sauro-Virus killed them off, but not mammalsD.Dinosaur Extinction•The dinosaurs went extinct, at least in part due to a meteor impact that created the Chicxulub crater•The meteor released huge dust clouds in the atmosphere, blocking the incoming sunlight, and creating an intense "deep freeze" that destroyed the dinosaur food supply•How much dust does it take?Nuclear Winter•Nuclear missiles are targeted at urban centers•5,000 megatons of explosive power over several spots on urban centers could result in fires (particulates) and dust •A dust and particulate cloud over the Earth could destabilize the energy balance of the Earth, resulting in less sunlight coming in•This could put the Earth into a "deep freeze", or nuclear winter. Carl Sagan helped start a team to analyze the possibility and results.Nuclear WinterMinor Uncertainties ("Second-Order" effects)•Forests vs. Urban fires•Exactly how much cooling?Major Takeaway ("First-Order" effects)•So large and implications so serious that there is definite risk of nuclear winterPeer Review•Physicists & biologists find the major results very convincing and disturbing•Pre-view published in popular Parade magazine, results published in ScienceNuclear Winter?•Various credible refinements and adjustments to the models initially showed less of a "winter"; cold temperatures were not a 35°C reduction in global temperatures, but closer to 10-20°C reduction. Serious, but not as devastating as the initial estimate•One level: The scientific process worked; initial hypothesis, research, and finalized results after several years of study. Results: Not Good for Earth•Another level: Sagan’s approach in popular/political media violated scientific norms.Charges of lack of "scientific integrity"; resort to popular media before publication•Jastrow: Authors were willfully deceptive, effects would be "minor to negligible"But the authors had mentioned mitigating effects in their paperScientific Models•Charges of “lack of scientific exercise”, a “failure to quantify the large uncertainties associated with estimates”•Oreskes and Conway: “All models are simplifications, and accurate quantification of uncertainties about nuclear warfare is impossible without actually fighting the war.. The point of a model is to explore domains that can’t be explored otherwise; you build a model when you don’t have access to the real thing – for reasons of time, space, practicality, cost, or morality.”Sagan•The research done by Sagan’s team was scientific, and passed initial peer review before publication in popular mediaLater results showed that the initial models had worse results•Do you think Sagan should have gone to public/political media?A. Yes! This was an important issue, and initial


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