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UCSB ENVS 106 - Lecture 07 Merchants of Doubt Ch 7 end and Pacala_POST

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Slide 1Silent Spring (1962)Slide 3ReactionsSlide 5New Attacks on CarsonNetwork of Right-Wing FoundationsSlide 8Tension between Free Speech and Free MarketsFree Market FundamentalismFalse Alarm Over Environmental False AlarmsSlide 12Slide 13Regulation as the Mother of InventionSlide 15Slide 16Slide 17Merchants of DoubtChapter 7Denial Rides Again: The Revisionist Attack on Rachel CarsonSilent Spring (1962)•Warned of the dangers of pesticides to natural ecosystems, especially DDT• Dangers of bioaccumulationSlow to break down, so can persist throughout the food web and build up in animalsPotential cancer risk to humans•Unintended ConsequencesKills far and wide, and sometimes kills the predators that help to balance out the problem •Indiscriminate use can lead to resistance and ineffectiveness“No responsible person contends that insect-borne disease should be ignored. The question that has now urgently presented itself is whether it is either wise or responsible to attack the problem by methods that are rapidly making it worse.The world has heard much of the triumphant war against disease through the control of insect vectors of infection, but it has heard little of the other side of the story—the defeats, the short-lived triumphs that now strongly support the alarming view that the insect enemy has been made actually stronger by our efforts. Even worse, we may have destroyed our very means of fighting.”Resistance!Reactions•Industry: Carson was “hysterical” and “emotional”•President’s Science Advisory Committee (PSAC)Found a number of uncertainties in clearly documenting a case against DDTFaced challenges with studying acute vs. chronic effectsStill recommended restrictions on pesticide use“The hazards resulting from their use dictate rapid strengthening of interim measures until such time as we have realized a comprehensive program for controlling environmental pollution.”Did not claim clear evidence of harm, but put the burden of proof of safety on the chemical manufacturers •1972 – 10 years after Silent Spring, US Federal Government bans DDThttp://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymiller/2012/09/05/rachel-carsons-deadly-fantasies/#3e4e1a4a15d1New Attacks on Carson•Rachel Carson’s work is “responsible for 50 million deaths”•Banning DDT was “the worst crime of the century”•In 1968 malaria flared up, but DDT was still being used in Sri Lanka, and the government used even more DDTResistance was the problem•Managing mosquitos requires multiple approaches beyond pesticidesDixy Lee Ray: “In 1948, before the use of DDT there were 2.8 million cases of malaria [in Sri Lanka]. By 1963, there were only 17. Low levels of infection continued until the late 1960s, when the attacks on DDT in the U.S. convinced officials to suspend spraying. In 1968 there were one million cases of malaria. In 1969, the number reached 2.5 million, back to pre-DDT levels. Moreover by 1972, the largely unsubstantiated charges against DDT in the United States had a worldwide effect.”Network of Right-Wing Foundations•Broader Critique of Environmental Policies•Academic Study 56 “environmentally skeptical” books published in the 1990s92% were linked to right-wing foundations•Echoes outward into the media sphere as well•Other connectionsMerchants of DoubtConclusionOf Free Speech and Free MarketsIt’s important to note that Oreskes and Conway are trying to develop what they think is a delicate balance between free speech/freedom of the press and the responsibility of accurately conveying information. This is primarily the goal of “journalism” as we know it, but it looks as if PR firms and other merchants of doubt were able to utilized this in a way that distorts the information. See the text for more info.Tension between Free Speech and Free Markets•Freedom of the Press•Fairness Doctrine•Science?Non-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeOregon Petition•Journalistic Self-Delusion•“Balance” as a form of BiasFree Market Fundamentalism•Market Failure“The greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen”•Perfect Informationvs. misinformation!•Regulation as clear, fair, and stable playing field•Has (and will) the free market provide the vast array of benefits to society?Machine ToolsDigital ComputersTransistorsThe InternetElectricitySuperhighway SystemBe up to speed on Oreskes and Conway’s concerns with free market fundamentalism from both directions:1. Free market fundamentalism has a number of flaws (market failures and information problems)2. Government intervention and regulation has been and can often be good and beneficial to society (they don’t think it is without problems though)False Alarm Over Environmental False Alarms•There is uncertainty and risk in the world•When should we “sound the alarm” and put a policy in place to reduce or mitigate the harms from various activities?•Author of The Skeptical Environmentalist, Bjørn Lomborg, often argues that many environmental challenges are not worth the cost•Pacala and colleagues argue that benefits of environmental regulation should be taken more seriouslye.g., EPA estimates that from 1970-1990 Clean Air Act regulation had health benefits of 22.2 TRILLION, while only about $523 billion in costsPacala et al. 2003Bjørn LomborgTotal BenefitsTotal CostsBenefts and Costs ($)00Sensitivity of the AlarmA*When the alarm sensitivity is zero, then there is no cost, but also no benefit, since the alarm is never sounded and no policies are ever in placeWhen the alarm sensitivity is extremely high, the costs of (too many) policies are greater than the benefits of the policiesAt the financial optimum, the difference between benefits and costs is greatestEvery Alarm Sensitvity in this range is a net beneft as well!A1A2Some considerations:•This graph represents the sensitivity of the alarm, not the actual strength of the policy response. You might lump the two issues together, but this is somewhat simplified. I discuss policy strength in the next slide.•From an anthropocentric (human-focused) point of view, A* looks to be the best option. But one can imagine thinking that the intercept point (turquoise circle) is fine as well, since we could get maximal environmental harm reduction without a net cost to humans.Pacala’s point in the paper is that too often, policy makers err on the side of “caution”,


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