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UCSB ENVS 106 - Lecture 08 Thinking In Systems Chapter 1_POST

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Slide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4ReductionismSlide 6We Engage in Some System Thinking AlreadySlide 8System DefinitionLosing and Gaining “System-ness”System BehaviorsSystem ElementsSystem InterconnectionsSystem Function?Unintended ConsequencesSubsystems in Systems, Systems in ConflictSystem IdentityImportance in SystemsStocks and FlowsSlide 20Slide 21Slide 22Human Perceptual Habits…Slide 24Feedback LoopsStabilizing Feedback LoopsRunaway Feedback LoopsA Different View of CausationDonella MeadowsThinking in SystemsSim City•1991 City Simulation Game on the Super Nintendo•Build a city – design street layouts, provide services, generate tax revenue, and build a wealthy, thriving city!Residential blocksCommercial blocksIndustrial blocksSpecial BuildingsA Simple Example from the Game Sim CityThe residential, commercial, and industrial blocks self-fill up with different types of buildings depending on various conditions surrounding the block.Small and grungy homes (red circle) are undesirable in the game. A simple-minded solution would be to delete the home and start from scratch. Start from a clean, fresh residential plot, and you’ll get rid of the crappy home!!Well, not really… the crappy homes just spring back up. From a systems thinking perspective, you need to think about the structure around the residential plot that is leading to crappy homes to spring up. Property values, crime levels, desirability, access to education, etc. These systemic factors play a much stronger role in determining the houses that appear in residential housing blocks.Aristotle (384-322 B.C.E.)•One of the Greatest Ancient PhilosophersAccording to Quentin, the greatest (of that time period)•Physical theory was the foundation of European and Middle Eastern science from his day through the middle ages•Eventually, many of his theories were overthrown during the scientific revolution•BUT, his theory of the four causes may be relevant to systems thinkingFormal CauseMaterial CauseEfficient CauseFinal Cause (purpose)The efficient cause is most clearly linked to how we think of linear causation today. But for Aristotle, so much more was important to thinking about why something is the caseReductionism•In rejecting much of Aristotle’s (admittedly) flawed physics, his approach to causation was also in large part jettisoned by the scientific revolution•Reducing to the single cause •Focus on agent/action rather than other conditions (focus on the efficient cause)•Focus on timewise linearityA Causes B B Causes CLinear, Reductionist CausationWe Engage in Some System Thinking AlreadyBecause of feedback delays within complex systems, by the time a problem becomes apparent it may be unnecessarily difficult to solve.— A stitch in time saves nine.According to the competitive exclusion principle, if a reinforcing feedback loop rewards the winner of a competition with the means to win further competitions, the result will be the elimination of all but a few competitors.—The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.A diverse system with multiple pathways and redundancies is more stable and less vulnerable to external shock than a uniform system with little diversity.— Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.•While we do have a general sense of systems thinking, we must focus more precisely on its structure in order to properly apply it!Big Problems are Systems Problems“Hunger, poverty, environmental degradation, economic instability, unemployment, chronic disease, drug addiction, and war, for example, persist in spite of the analytical ability and technical brilliance that have been directed toward eradicating them. No one deliberately creates those problems, no one wants them to persist, That is because they are intrinsically systems problems—undesirable behaviors characteristic of the system structures that produce them. They will yield only as we reclaim our intuition, stop casting blame, see the system as the source of its own problems, and find the courage and wisdom to restructure it.”but they persist nonetheless. Don’t take Meadows to deny that there is any sense of personal responsibility for many social ills. However, Meadows thinks that there are almost always systemic factors influencing many outcomes, and to ignore them in lieu of “individuals make their own choices” does not display an understanding of systemic factors at play in social and environmental phenomena.System Definition•A system is an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves somethingExample•Football TeamElements: players, coach, field, ballInterconnections: rules of the game, coach’s strategy, player communications, laws of physicsPurpose/Function: win games, or have fun, or get exercise, or make moneyLosing and Gaining “System-ness”•Death of an OrganismInterconnections no longer holdParts deteriorateOrganism “function” no longer persistsOrganism itself may still be a part of a larger ecosystem•Large-Scale Social Disruption: First Day of CollegeNew parts come together (freshmen, RA’s)Very few interconnections, but rapidly buildFunction/Pattern is indeterminate for some time, but within a few weeks begins to emergeSystem Behaviors•Change•Adaptation•Responsivity to events•Goal-seeking•Self-repair (over a narrow or broad range of disruptions)•Survival-oriented behavior•Self-organizingSystem Elements•Tangible Elements•Intangible ElementsSystem Interconnections•Physical flows and chemical reactions•Information flows and requirementshttp://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/why-a-big-mac-costs-less-than-a-salad/?_r=0 System Function?•Hard to discern•Clearly stated goals may be useful to know the function of human systems, but not always•Observation of behavior is a way to infer functionMust exhibit a particular pattern of means-end behaviorExample: A frog turns left and catches a fly, then turns right and catches a fly, and turns around an catches a fly. The most clear “function” here is the catching of flies, not turning left, right, and around.Example: Government food policyHere it seems that the stated government function for nutrition and public health is at odds with its behavior, the way it actually supports different food suppliers. In this regard, it’s not entirely obvious that the government’s stated function is in fact its actual


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