Lecture2-3_AfricaOverviewGraphs.pdfAIDS Rates70% ruralRural transportRecreationSemi-urban areasAnd citiesFarmersBurkina FasoHouse in the SahelVillage MarketNigerFieldwork in AfricaLunch TimeTGIFRural TransportRainy seasonOccupationsSourcesUdry-Africa-SlideShow2005.pdf70% ruralSourcesAkresh-Africa Powerpoint.pdfAIDS Rates70% ruralRural transportRecreationSemi-urban areasAnd citiesFarmersBurkina FasoHouse in the SahelVillage MarketNigerFieldwork in AfricaLunch TimeTGIFRural TransportRainy seasonOccupationsSourcesDiscussion of Perceptions about AfricaOptimal advocacy story• Things are really awful right now…• …but they can get a lot better thanks to our efforts…• …and in fact, things are now starting to look up.Advocacy biases• First, portray Africa as worse than it really is…• …then overemphasize factors that are most subject to change by aid agencies • …and finally overemphasize positive turning points due to aid effortsThree examples of advocates making African problems look worse• Overstating extent of extreme phenomena like war• The Africa poverty trap idea based on selection bias• The Millennium Development Goals campaignDire portraits of Africa• Collier (2007, p.3) says that African nations “coexist with the twenty-first century, but their reality is the fourteenth century: civil war, plague, ignorance.”• Celebrity activist Bob Geldof: "War, Famine, Plague & Death are the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse and these days they're riding hard through the back roads of Africa.“• Angelina Jolie: “how can we stand by and watch a whole continent be destroyed?” • Of course, Africa does have a lot of poverty, poor social indicators, political conflict and violence. But do the above quotes accurately portray Africa?Media stereotypes (excessive focus on war, famine, child soldiers, etc.) reinforce advocacy biasThe Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are not the typical experience for most AfricansProportion of African populationAverage annual war deaths as proportion of population, 1965-2005 0.0001Proportion of male children ages 10-17 who were child soldiers in 1999 0.0019Average annual proportion affected by famine, 1990-2005 0.0029Proportion of population who are refugees or internally displaced persons, 2005 0.0053Proportion of population who died from AIDS in 2007 0.0020Africa poverty trap• Collier (2007) and Sachs (2005, 2008) separately conclude that Africa is in a “trap” or “vicious circle” of poverty, failed states, civil war, military coups, low savings, poor technology and infrastructure, etc., thus requiring outside rescue from aid and experts.Evidence on poverty trap• Collier (2007) notes that Bottom Billion had lousy growth rates.• Unfortunately, the Bottom Billion was defined at the END of the period, so there was selection bias – of course, those who are poor at the end of a long period are more likely to have had poor economic growth over the preceding period (along with more disasters that lower growth like war, political instability, etc.)• In Sachs (2005, 2008), the selection bias is not so explicit but is still implicit: “poor countries fail to thrive”• Ex-ante tests of poverty trap fail to confirm that initially poor countries have lower per capita growth than richer countries (Easterly, Journal of Economic Growth, 2007)).• Substantial mobility in and out of Bottom Billion• Poor growth is not persistent (Easterly, Kremer, Pritchett, and Summers 1993, since confirmed many times)Millennium Development Goals exercise portrays Africa as universal failure• “Africa…is the only continent not on track to meet any of the goals of the Millennium Declaration by 2015.” (UN World Summit Declaration, 2005)• “Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region which, at current rates, will meet none of the MDG targets by 2015.” (follow-up to Blair Commission for Africa, communiqué, 2007)These statements on MDGs turn some African successes into failures (Easterly 2008)• Goal 1: recent high GDP growth (6% 2004-2007) in Africa is said to be still not high enough to cut poverty in half because of Africa’s low poverty elasticity.• Goal 2: Africa is catching up on primary enrollment• Goal 3: Africa is catching up on gender equality in education• Goal 4: Africa has had a large absolute reduction in child mortality• Goal 5: No data on trends in maternal mortality• Goal 6: No data on trends in AIDS prevalence• Goal 7: Africa is catching up on access to clean waterGross Primary Enrollment (Log Scale) in Africa and Other Developing Countries1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Log Base 10 ScaleAfricaNon-Africa Developing3240506379100Percent with clean water1.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.921970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004Log ScaleAfricaNon-Africa DevelopingPositive news: Recent African growth has been good, and there are a number of private sector success stories• Large increase in private capital inflows• Rapid expansion of technology driven by private sector (cell phones, PCs, Internet connections)• Sectoral success stories like cut flowers in Kenya (captured 39% of European market) and textiles in Lesotho (rapid expansion in exports to US).FDI+Portfolio Investment in Africa, 1970 - 20050510152025197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003US$ BillionMobile phone subscribers in Africa 199019921994199619982000200220041,00010,000100,00010,000,0001,000,000100,000,000How is research distorted by excessively negative picture of Africa?• The more extreme the problem…• …the more extreme the solution that researchers look for.• Overemphasis on changeable things says that extreme solutions are possible.Extreme solutions researchers may be tempted to look for:• Extreme Speed (crisis is urgent, so calls for rapid fix)• Extreme Scale (look for policies with very large payoffs)• Extreme Scope (look for integrated solutions that cover poverty, war, dictatorship, corruption, health, education, etc.)Research and reality• There may be NO policy feasible that has the desired extreme speed, scale, and scope. • Real world experiences of development suggest that development is usually gradual (not speedy), each step has a payoff of modest scale, and steps are piecemeal (modest scope: one problem fixed at a time, not feasible to do everything at once)• Moral of the story for researchers on Africa: don’t waste any more time looking for the Next Big Answer, let research be