Introduction-How do we know what we think we knowvicarious experience: IR is hard to experience personally all the time so we learn through journalists, videos,personal experience-Our basic goal is to simplify- to find patternsevolutionary sense: we have limited amount to absorb so we have to focus on what’s importantex. Ancient times the most important thing was to survive so when you see a tiger instead of realizing how furry it is, you say how can you kill or run away from itWhen we simplify, we see how leaders or even we get in trouble-Be wary when “everyone knows” something!Scissors effect: Population exceeds the ability to feedCrowding and combat hypothesis: Malthusian how interstate conflicts come aboutAs population and density increases, the food supply and resources become more scarce and itll want to combat other countries to save itself- Introduction in SumThough Dr. Spock said “you know more that you think you do” (about parenting)In the worlds of Donald Rumsfeld, there are “unknown unknowns”Unknown unknown are inferencesin IR, you know less than you think you do.Looking for reality in IR- Are there options to the scientific approach?- Consider what was “known by all” about the causes of war as a result of WW1-Behavior of Britain and France was not usualFoundations of Social ScienceLooking for Reality in IR-Behavior of Britain and France was not unusualGroupthink: One of the problems with Iraq was the as the one in the Vietnam WarGeorge Ball: kick out peopleBad for decision making- “Friendship Effect” problem- Why we make mistakes (Babbie 6-7)Inaccurate observationsEx. Iraq War: Heavily criticized reports of Suddaam Husseins capability of weapons. What would happened if they invaded- sanctions, not act of liberation- Inaccurate Observations- Overgeneralization- Selective Observations- Illogival Reasoning- PerspectiveVariables-One way to reduce pre-conceived biases is to represent specific examples as variables with abstract attributes (small case words)Ex. China: a country with a large populationEx. Libya: a country undergoing a civil warFoundations of Social Science-Logico-empirical basis of science1. If X is an assumption, then ~X (negate X) cannot be an assumption2. Consistency is essential3. Intersubjective agreementif we study IR, reality depends on the degree to which we can agree to what we are observing- Scientific observation is guided by theory, rather than philosophy or beliefWhat happened on 9/11Not much disagreement on events, but interpretations can vary widelyWhat was the significance of evens on 9/11Escalation of war by radical islamists against the US and West in general since Iranian Revolution of 1979; part of a greater pattern of resistance to globalization; many other possibilities- What happens when a “good” theory that makes sense is not supported by observation?1. Alternative explanations could be possible2. Crowding/combat hypothesisTheories that are bad last too longThe steps to warCounries that have well put boarders are less likely to fight1812: last time Canada had a warIdiographic: syncretic causes of a particular conditionE.g., start with idiographic explanatiaon of WWI: often pointed out that the German Kaiser had a fatalistic outlook and too great an attachment to Austria- Hungary, which was allowed to be overly aggressive with Serbia, contributing to war.Nomothetic: identifying few causal factors that are more generalizable across casesAlso must be aware of nomothetic factors: rigid alliance systems tend to be vulnerable to war because of excess of intra-alliance communication and lack of inter-alliance communicationAnother example of the friendship effectSocial Networks and the Middle East- The history of the Arab SpringMohamed Bouazizi (March 29, 1984- January 4,2011)Egyptain Revolution-Leaderless Revolution?-“The revolution was successful because it had no leaders, only coordinators of bottom-up energy. Its use of social media was brilliantly conceived to meld online organizing with offline action, not supplant it.”The role of technology- “People make revolutions, not technology.”- “What has occurred that is so threatening to despots is the availability to reach so many people so quickly and to permeate borders to permeate physical things that were impenetrable, by airways…”Technologists vs. Scholars- “You know, my own opinion is that it would be extremely arrogant for any specific technology company to claim any meaningful roles in those (revolutions). I think Facebook was neither necessary or sufficient for either of those things to happenThe Arab Spring Phenomenon-Based on what you know and what we have discuess what factors insured a successful first wave of Mideast uprisings?-Think how would you try to address this using the concepts discussed in class such as: concept, operationalization, variables, theory,operationalization: how many people were oppressed in 5 months?-Conclusions-We need to be aware of our desire to simplify the world and counteract that with skepticism and detachment-reality reflects the highest level of intersubjective agreement that can be obtained among individuals-scientific observation is guided by theory and is the foundation for all that follows in this course-we are always working back and forth between theory and observation even if we are not fully aware of that going on-big picture: human inquiry leading to progress depends on scienceOutline:1. Logical systems2. Theory, Logic, and observation3. Scientific inference and democratic peace4. ConclusionsLogical Systems-inductive theory building- the good, the bad, and the ugly-inductive reasoning: observation/experimentgeneralizations paradigm/theory-deductive reasoning: paradigm/theorypredictions observation/experiment-power transition-“balancing” behavior of statesbalancing: a tool by which states achieve their goals and interestsstems from waltz and neorealism; deductivelong treated in IR theory as the ‘norm’ (though challenged by recent studies)assumes that anarchy forces states to rely on their own resources to secure security, with the ubiquitous goal of survival (‘self-help’)been attacked by empirical observations especially in E.Asia/China’s rise in power and lack of perceivable balancing behavior from its neighborsTheory, logic, and observation-the relationship involving theory and observation is dialectical- example of a program of research have informed each other