Human Inquiry and Science 08 25 2016 Introduction How do we know what we think we know vicarious experience IR is hard to experience personally all the time so we learn through journalists videos personal experience Our basic goal is to simplify to find patterns evolutionary sense we have limited amount to absorb so we have to focus on what s important o ex Ancient times the most important thing was to survive so when you see a tiger instead of realizing how furry it is you say how can you kill or run away from it When we simplify we see how leaders or even we get in trouble Be wary when everyone knows something Scissors effect Population exceeds the ability to feed Crowding and combat hypothesis Malthusian how interstate conflicts come about o As population and density increases the food supply and resources become more scarce and itll want to combat other countries to save itself Introduction in Sum Though Dr Spock said you know more that you think you do about parenting In the worlds of Donald Rumsfeld there are unknown unknowns o Unknown unknown are inferences in IR you know less than you think you do Looking for reality in IR Are there options to the scientific approach Consider what was known by all about the causes of war as a result of WW1 Behavior of Britain and France was not usual Foundations of Social Science 08 25 2016 Looking for Reality in IR Behavior of Britain and France was not unusual Groupthink One of the problems with Iraq was the as the one in the Vietnam War George Ball kick out people Bad for decision making Friendship Effect problem Why we make mistakes Babbie 6 7 Inaccurate observations Ex Iraq War Heavily criticized reports of Suddaam Husseins capability of weapons What would happened if they invadedsanctions not act of liberation Inaccurate Observations Overgeneralization Selective Observations Illogival Reasoning Perspective Variables One way to reduce pre conceived biases is to represent specific examples as variables with abstract attributes small case words Ex China a country with a large population Ex Libya a country undergoing a civil war Foundations of Social Science Logico empirical basis of science 1 If X is an assumption then X negate X cannot be an assumption 2 Consistency is essential 3 Intersubjective agreement if we study IR reality depends on the degree to which we can agree to what we are observing Scientific observation is guided by theory rather than philosophy or belief What happened on 9 11 Not much disagreement on events but interpretations can vary widely What was the significance of evens on 9 11 Escalation of war by radical islamists against the US and West in general since Iranian Revolution of 1979 part of a greater pattern of resistance to globalization many other possibilities What happens when a good theory that makes sense is not supported by observation 1 Alternative explanations could be possible 2 Crowding combat hypothesis Theories that are bad last too long The steps to war Counries that have well put boarders are less likely to fight 1812 last time Canada had a war Idiographic syncretic causes of a particular condition E g start with idiographic explanatiaon of WWI often pointed out that the German Kaiser had a fatalistic outlook and too great an attachment to Austria Hungary which was allowed to be overly aggressive with Serbia contributing to war Nomothetic identifying few causal factors that are more generalizable across cases Also must be aware of nomothetic factors rigid alliance systems tend to be vulnerable to war because of excess of intra alliance communication and lack of inter alliance communication Another example of the friendship effect 08 25 2016 Social Networks and the Middle East The history of the Arab Spring Mohamed Bouazizi March 29 1984 January 4 2011 Egyptain Revolution Leaderless Revolution The revolution was successful because it had no leaders only coordinators of bottom up energy Its use of social media was brilliantly conceived to meld online organizing with offline action not supplant it The role of technology People make revolutions not technology What has occurred that is so threatening to despots is the availability to reach so many people so quickly and to permeate borders to permeate physical things that were impenetrable by airways Technologists vs Scholars You know my own opinion is that it would be extremely arrogant for any specific technology company to claim any meaningful roles in those revolutions I think Facebook was neither necessary or sufficient for either of those things to happen The Arab Spring Phenomenon Based on what you know and what we have discuess what factors insured a successful first wave of Mideast uprisings Think how would you try to address this using the concepts discussed in class such as concept operationalization variables theory operationalization how many people were oppressed in 5 months Paradigms Conclusions 08 25 2016 We need to be aware of our desire to simplify the world and counteract that with skepticism and detachment reality reflects the highest level of intersubjective agreement that can be obtained among individuals scientific observation is guided by theory and is the foundation for all that follows in this course we are always working back and forth between theory and observation even if we are not fully aware of that going on big picture human inquiry leading to progress depends on science Outline 1 Logical systems 2 Theory Logic and observation 3 Scientific inference and democratic peace 4 Conclusions Logical Systems inductive theory building the good the bad and the ugly inductive reasoning observation experiment generalizations paradigm theory deductive reasoning paradigm theory predictions observation experiment power transition balancing behavior of states balancing a tool by which states achieve their goals and interests stems from waltz and neorealism deductive long treated in IR theory as the norm though challenged by recent studies assumes that anarchy forces states to rely on their own resources to secure security with the ubiquitous goal of survival self help been attacked by empirical observations especially in E Asia China s rise in power and lack of perceivable balancing behavior from its neighbors Theory logic and observation the relationship involving theory and observation is dialectical example of a program of research have informed each other effectively is on alliance behavior specifically defense spending Scientific