Format45 questions5 pts each = 225 pointsmultiple choiceFull sheet of paper front & backStatisticsMean (average) , median (mid point), mode (most frequent #)Mean & media=same then it is normal distribution or symmetricalMean & median not the same it is skewedSamplingToo cost and time prohibited to do a census of everyoneInfer something about the populationNormal distributionRelative frequencyFrequency is how many times it occurredThe frequency of the attribute divided by total data pointsCumulative rel freqFirst and second data points add them together and divide by total data pointsWeighted meanOne column x other columnSum of columns/Sum of frequency= weighted averageCoefficient of VariationWill be provided, just need to plug in the formula!CV = STD/ mean x 100 = %Probabilities# successes/ # eventsJoint Probability1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36Normal DistributionZ = X – M/ STDLeft hand side of the curve, probability that it is less than point = -.5Left hand side of the curve and its greater than the point = +.5Right hand side of the curve probability that it is greater than point = -.5Right hand side of the curve, probability that its less than point = +.5Two points, both on opposite side of midpoint than you add them togetherTwo points, same side of midpoint, than subtract them from each otherSample meansProportionsConfidence intervals (Look at week 6 notes) 34:01Sample mean: CV will be a Z scoreIf STD: std & sample sizeReviewDecision Making (look @ week 9 notes)EthicsSarbanes OxleyDecision making under uncertaintyThe Payoff TableMini min = minimum payoffMaximin = maximum payoff of the tableEMVProbability X Outcome/Payoff in rowsEVPIProbability X largest payoff in columnadd togetherVPIEVPI – Largest EMV = VPIHypothesis testingNull Hypothesis,something they are trying to test againstAlt Hypothesis,OperationsBreak even analysisForecastingNaïve forecast, whatever happened last period will happen this periodSimple MovingSum of demand/ # of periodsWeighted movingLook at notes and pics on phoneExponential SmoothingStep 1: First Period Forecasted = Naïve ForecastStep 2: Remaining Periods Forecasted: (Smoothing Factor (ά) x Previous Actual Demand)Step 3: Remaining Periods Forecasted: (1-Smoothing Factor(ά) x Previous Forecast)Step 4: Remaining Periods Forecasted: Add Steps 2 and 3Economic Order Quantity (how much to reorder)Annual DemandsCost of orderingCarrying costReorder points (when to order)Demand during lead timeLead timeLeanTaichi of ToyotaJust in TimeTheory of ConstraintsEvery system has a bottleneck or constraintIncrease the capacity at the constraintProduct DesignProduct that meets the need of customersProject managementQualitySystems AvailabilityMetric to determine, how much time the customer uses the productSa = MTBF / (MTBF + MTTR) x 100 = % (the closer it is to 100% the better the product is!)Supply Chain Operations Reference ModelScore model has six basic functionsPlanSourceMakeDeliveryReturnEnableSix Sigma and Design for Six SigmaDefine/ DefineMeasure/ MeasureAnalyze/ AnalyzeImprove/ DesignControl/ VerifyPerfect order fulfillmentPositioning strategiesCompete on QualityCompete on CostCompete on FlexibilityCompete on SpeedVision (where you want to be in the future) , mission, strategy (how you want to do that)Supply Chain vs. LogisticsLogistics is a subset of supply chainModes of TransportationWrite rules of confidence intervals on paper!Exam Review 12/10/2015Format-45 questions-5 pts each = 225 points-multiple choice-Full sheet of paper front & backStatistics-Mean (average) , median (mid point), mode (most frequent #)oMean & media=same then it is normal distribution or symmetricaloMean & median not the same it is skewed-SamplingoToo cost and time prohibited to do a census of everyoneoInfer something about the population-Normal distribution-Relative frequencyoFrequency is how many times it occurred oThe frequency of the attribute divided by total data points-Cumulative rel freqoFirst and second data points add them together and divide by total data points-Weighted meanoOne column x other columnoSum of columns/Sum of frequency= weighted average-Coefficient of VariationoWill be provided, just need to plug in the formula!oCV = STD/ mean x 100 = %-Probabilitieso# successes/ # eventsoJoint Probability1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36oNormal DistributionZ = X – M/ STDLeft hand side of the curve, probability that it is less than point = -.5Left hand side of the curve and its greater than the point = +.5Right hand side of the curve probability that it is greater than point = -.5Right hand side of the curve, probability that its less than point = +.5Two points, both on opposite side of midpoint thanyou add them togetherTwo points, same side of midpoint, than subtract them from each other-Sample means-nσμ)x(zo-Proportionsnπ)π(1πpσπpzp-Confidence intervals (Look at week 6 notes) 34:01oSample mean: CV will be a Z scoreoIf STD: std & sample sizeoPoint Estimate ± (Critical Value)(Standard Error)12/10/2015ReviewDecision Making (look @ week 9 notes)-Ethics-Sarbanes Oxley-Decision making under uncertaintyoThe Payoff TableMini min = minimum payoffMaximin = maximum payoff of the table-EMVoProbability X Outcome/Payoff in rows-EVPIoProbability X largest payoff in column oadd together-VPIoEVPI – Largest EMV = VPI-Hypothesis testingoNull Hypothesis, something they are trying to test againstoAlt Hypothesis, 12/10/2015Operations-Break even analysis----------ForecastingoNaïve forecast, whatever happened last period will happen this periodoSimple MovingSum of demand/ # of periodsoWeighted movingLook at notes and pics on phoneoExponential SmoothingStep 1: First Period Forecasted = Naïve ForecastStep 2: Remaining Periods Forecasted: (Smoothing Factor (ά) x Previous Actual Demand) Step 3: Remaining Periods Forecasted: (1-Smoothing Factor(ά) x Previous Forecast)Step 4: Remaining Periods Forecasted: Add Steps 2 and 3-Economic Order Quantity (how much to reorder)oAnnual DemandsoCost of ordering• Total Costs = Total Revenues(Volume x Price) = • (Fixed Costs + Variable Costs)• Profit = (Total Revenue – Total Costs)• B/E PT = Fixed Costs/Sales-Variable CostsoCarrying cost-Reorder points (when to order)oDemand during lead timeoLead time-LeanoTaichi of Toyota-Just in Time-Theory of ConstraintsoEvery system has a bottleneck or constraintoIncrease the capacity at the