1 BUSINESS MANAGEMENT 2320 DECISION SCIENCES: STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES Autumn 2014 INSTRUCTOR Mrs. Bonnie Schroeder OFFICE Fisher Hall 330 E-MAIL [email protected] – all general course and concept questions [email protected] – all questions/concerns for which I alone would be able to grant a permission (example: make-up exam) or supply the information (example: course grade) All communications must use secure OSU e-mail. Do not use gmail, yahoo, or other personal e-mail accounts. SUBJECT heading required for all e-mail communications: BM2320 – instructor name – recitation day and time If protocol is followed, you should expect a response no later than the next business day. VOICE MAIL for emergency messages only: 688 - 8062 TAs See Carmen > AU14 BUSMGT 2320 > Content > Syllabus and General Information. OFFICE HOURS Office Hours are run according to a FIFS system. You cannot “schedule” time during office hours for an appointment. Come organized and prepared to ask questions. Office hours are not for “camping” to do homework and/or to study. All students are invited to utilize all office hours scheduled by all instructors and TAs. An Excel file containing a complete schedule of office hours offered by all BM2320 instructors and TAs will be posted on Carmen > AU14 BUSMGT 2320 > Content > Syllabus and General Information. COURSE REQUIREMENTS PREREQUISITES Statistics 1430 and CSE 2111 or 1113. Note: We are not able to waive prerequisites for this class. REQUIRED TEXT Moore, McCabe, Alwan, Craig, Duckworth The Practice of Statistics for Business and Economics, 3rd edition W. H. Freeman and Co. (Chapters 1 – 15*) ISBN: 10-1429242531 or 13-9781429242530 * Chapter 15 is a supplemental chapter not printed with the standard text book. It is, however, free and open at the companion web site for the text book (see below). CLASSROOM SUPPORT MATERIALS Turning Technologies Clicker (RF model is adequate) Calculator – no requirements/restrictions but one is required for every lecture, recitation, and exam Probability tables (Carmen > AU14 BUSMGT 2320 > Content > Probability Tables) Course formula packet (Carmen > AU14 BUSMGT 2320 > Content > Formula Pages) COMPANION WEB SITE FOR TEXT http://www.whfreeman.com/psbe3e Data sets, Applets, Supplemental Chapters (Chapter 15), etc. CARMEN http://carmen.osu.edu General information, Videos, Lecture and Recitation materials, Assignments, Grades, etc.2 COURSE OVERVIEW and OBJECTIVES A. Vast amounts of data are collected in today’s global business and economic environment. The most successful decision-makers and managers are those individuals/groups that can put this information to work effectively to guide their decision process. Accountants routinely conduct audits for their clients using statistical sampling procedures that allow them to draw a conclusion about the accuracy of the accounts receivable amount shown on a balance sheet based on the information obtained from the carefully validated sample. Financial advisors use a variety of statistical information to measure the risk associated with investments. A variety of statistical information is used in production processes to monitor the quality of the output of that process. Electronic scanners used at retail checkout counters gather data used in establishing future marketing strategies. These are but a few examples of the uses of information generated through statistical analysis of data. The first objective of the course, then, is to familiarize you with some common statistical methods used for generating decision-making information from data. We will focus our attention on Classical methods for estimation and hypothesis testing, Analysis of Variance, Regression analysis and model building, and forecasting with time series. We emphasize data investigation and mastering statistical reasoning, not mathematical rigor. Our approach will generally follow a three-step process: 1. PLAN  Identify the question that needs to be answered.  Obtain relevant data. Understand the characteristics of the data.  Select a model and method. The Normal and Binomial models will be stressed because of their general applicability and ease of implementation, but they are applicable only under certain conditions. Before any calculations are performed, we must verify that the data conditions support the model 2. CALCULATE  All formulas and calculations must be understood, and therefore demonstrated and practiced, in order to use the methods properly. The computational burden will be eased in practice by the use of readily available statistical computer software. 3. COMMUNICATE  Proper selection of the model, accurate measurement, and a correct analysis are necessary but not sufficient for the solution of management problems. The final, and most important, part is the interpretation of the results of the analysis. We will emphasize contextual communication of the results of a statistical analysis to a business audience. B. Professional appearance and conduct, effective communication, self-motivation, and team-work are as vital for ensuring success in the business environment as are strong technical skills. Inattentiveness during meetings, talking or “text-messaging” while others are speaking, and arriving late to appointments are unacceptable behaviors in the business arena. Preparing incomplete, unorganized, sloppy, and/or illegible projects will limit your promotion possibilities. Missing project deadlines will compromise your employment status. A secondary goal of the course, then, will be development of behaviors, work habits, and communication skills consistent with expectations in the business environment. To that end, we have some classroom rules, and class participation points can be deducted for violation of these rules: 1. Common courtesy will be extended to everyone, peers and instructors. 2. Use of electronic devices is restricted to class related activities. 3. Late arrivals and/or early departures are frowned upon. If you arrive late, or must leave the room before class has been dismissed, do not walk across the front of the room 4. Be prepared for every class meeting – “research” the discussion topics and have appropriate materials. 5. Sleeping during class is strictly prohibited.3 PROCEDURES Instruction, Practice, Graded Evaluation A. Instruction – We will employ three instructional components, all of