PSYCH 240 1st Edition Lecture 20Outline of Last Lecture: Judgement and Decision MakingI. Reasoning TaxonomyII. Normative Theories of Probabilistic ReasoningIII. Descriptive Theories of Probabilistic ReasoningOutline of Current Lecture: Judgement and Decision Making III. Availability HeuristicII. Simulation HeruisticIII. Conjunction FallacyIV. Framing EffectV. ConclusionsCurrent Lecture: Lecture 20: Judgement and Decision Making II (April 13, 2015)I. Availability Heuristica. Estimating the frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations could be brought to mindi. Tversky and Kahneman (1973)1. Subjects given category – Novelists vs. Flowers2. Either: a. Subjects given 7 seconds to estimate how many they could retrieve in 2 minutesb. Subjects given 2 minutes to retrieve as many examples as possible3. Results: correlation btwn estimate and retrieval nearly perfectb. Problemsi. Often think that events are much more typical than they truly areII. Simulation Heuristica. Base judgements on how easily you can imagine: i. How things will turn out in the futureii. How things would have turned out in different circumstancesb. Experimenti. Mr. Crane and Mr. Tees were scheduled toleave the airport on different flights, atthe same time. They traveled from town to townin the same limousine, were caught in a traffic jam, and arrived at the airport 30 minutesafter the scheduled departure time of theirflights1. Mr. Crane is told that his flight has left on time. Mr. Tees is told that his flight was delayed, and just left 5 minutes ago. Who is more upset?These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.a. People say Mr. Teesc. Importance of casual linksIII. Conjunction Fallacya. Occurs when people mistakenly believe that a conjunction of events (hot and sunny) is more probably than a single event (hot)i. Example:1. People mistakenly report that words like “- - ing” are more probable than words like “- - - n -” (availability)ii. Example 2:1. A health survey was conducted on adult males. Mr. F. was included. Which is more probable?a. That Mr. F has had one or more heart attacksb. That Mr. F has had one or more heart attacks and is over 552. Results:a. 58% make conjunction errorb. But only 25% make conjunction error here:i. A health survey was conducted on 100 males1. How many do you think had 1 or more heart attacks?2. How many do you think were over 55 and have had 1 or more heart attacksb. How it can be explainedi. Drawing attention to set relationships, using frequencies instead of probabilities and/or thinking diagrammatically sharply reduce the error in some forms of the conjunction fallacyIV. Framing Effect: the same information presented in different forms can lead to different decisionsi. Is the glass half empty of half full?a. Example: Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease,which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that: ii. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved1. Which will you choosea. People pick Aiii. If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die for certainIf Program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3probability that 600 people will die1. Which will you choose? a. People pick Bb. Example: Free throw statsi. Subjects rate a basketball player more highly if the player had made 75% of hisor her free throws, compared to their ratings of a player who missed 25% of his or her free throwsc. Example: Medical Treatmentsii. Subjects more likely to endorse a medical treatment with a “50% success rate”than one with a “50% failure rate.”V. Conclusionsa. People are not intuitive statisticiansi. Use heuristics that are not normativeb. Heuristics reduce task complexityc. Heuristics lead to systematic