Ntres 2201 1st Edition Lecture 16Outline of Last LectureI. RIP Chapter HouseII. Community based resource managementIII. PopulationA) “Crisis” of population growthB) Demographya) Birthb) DeathOutline of Current LectureI. AnnouncementsA) RegradesB) Guest lecturersII. Population growthIII. SimonIV. Critiques of SimonV. Global population growthCurrent LectureI. AnnouncementsA) Regrades*Everyone got back 20% of the points they had lost*This decreases inequality rather than increasing it like the last “solution” did*The new mean is 80%*This helps everyone, but helps the people who did poorly more than people who did wellB) Guest lecturers*We will have guest lecturers next weekII. Population growth*There has been an ongoing concern about population growth*It’s not new*Ehrlich: Population Bomb-Population growth causes starvation and resource depletion (we need to use a lot of water and other resources to get the immense amounts of food we need)-Exponential population growth vs technological advances that cannot keep up (more linear)These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.-We can’t stop the hundreds of thousands of people who are doomed to starve to death-The death rate will rapidly increase-Proposed voluntary sterilization of men-This book was written in 1968 (useful ancient history)-HE WAS WRONG: technology actually managed to keep up with population growth, even though there has been famine in certain places and sometimes increased pollutionIII. Simon*Logic/faith  data*Cornucopia (horn of plenty)*Technological optimism (it can keep up)*Bio-Economist at U of Illinois-Professor of business administration at U of Maryland-Died a few years ago*Argument-Humans are the ultimate solution to the environment-Population growth will solve our problems, not cause them-People over exaggerate the issue… really we shouldn’t worry-Brings forth data showing increased per capita food production and decreased famine-Every point Ehrlich brought forth, Simon manages to counter-Claims that we don’t need worry about resource depletion because they are actually getting LESS scarce#For economists, price is a better indicator of scarcity than how much of the resource there actually is#We only assess scarcity in relation to demand*Even if there is very little of something, if nobody wants it then it isn’t scarce#Simon says that prices have in general been dropping#Counterargument: What are the side effects?*Simon argues back that we will just come up with new solutions to our new environmental problems-What can we do to reduce demand/raise supply?#Change our methods#Advance technology-Why does it actually matter? Why are we concerned about population growth?#Because they are consumers#Simon’s arguments that they are also producers-People argue what about those who can’t get a formal education?#Everyone can potentially help#More kids help even more in less developed countries than in more developedcountries (you must reach a threshold before certain infrastructure can happen)*Simon – Ehrlich wager-Ehrlich bets in x number of years, England won’t exist-Simon says you are so dumb, you are really dumb, for real-Instead he says I bet you a thousand dollars that the prices of any 5 materials you pick will decrease in price over x number of years-In x number of year, England still existed, but the prices of those 5 materials droppedIV. Critiques of Simon*What do you do about externalities?-Eventually they will become so big that technology can’t keep up*You can’t assume we make the stuff rather than find the stuff-Simon argues that resources don’t exist until we have a need and way to extract it#Um, what?*Past trends are not a good predictor of what will happen in the future-Ex: global climate change-For the first time, we are seeing birth rates in developed countries with young populations decrease, but massive increase in consumption per capitaV. Global population growth*Most of the growth is urban growth*1957  30% of people live in urban areas*2000  47%*2030 (projected)  60%*Developed world is more urban than the developing world, but the developing world is catching up*Urbanism: natural part of the typical development path*Spatial inequality-As urban places concentrate population, gain more control#Rural places end up feeding