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SIU GEOG 300I - Biofuels

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GEOG 300i 1st Edition Lecture 21- Biofuels- Climate changeo Deforestations and biofuels are two issues strictly related to climate changeo Deforestation can increase GHG emissionso One of the main rationales of biofuels is their impacts on GHG emissionso Climate change is the ultimate wicked problemo Global in scaleo People disagree on what the causes are and how to solve ito Climate change is a global commons problem.o There is far more carbon in the ground than emitted in any baseline scenario.- Climate changeo In the case of global warming, people are trying to create governance institutions that manage climate via a constructed mitigation marketo Rich countries can buy carbon offsets from poor countries- Climate change offsetso Why does this make sense?o Because achieves carbon emission reductions at the lowest cost – but remember this leaves high cost industries emitting GHGs.o Because we need buy in of all sectors and countries for GHG emissions to be reduced, and putting every country and sector under the cap would have enraged developing countries.- Hasselmann et al. 2003o “Even if forcefully implemented, currently available low-cost technologies have limited capacity for substantial global emission reduction and will not be able to counter the rising emissions projected for the long term.o Future emissions will be driven mainly by the expanding populations of the developing world, which strive to achieve the same living standards as the industrial countries.”- Hasselmann et al. 2003o No long term solution technology is yet economically viable, but there are many candidates:o Solar thermal or photovoltaic energy—in combination with hydrogen technologyo Carbon sequestration in geological formations or the oceano Advanced nuclear fission,o Nuclear fusiono Which technology, or mix of technologies, will ultimately prove most cost-effective cannot be predicted.- Hasselmann et al. 2003o We can deal with climate change in the short term using emission targets and the polluter pays principle, but in the long-term we will need a much more comprehensive approach.o “The entry of new technologies into the marketplace depends on multiple incentives and feedbacks, including private investments; government investments in infrastructure and subsidies for pilot plants; protected niche markets; and changes in consumer preferences and lifestyles”- Hasselmann et al. 2003o “Climate is a public good that demands communal action for its protection, including the involvement of citizens and institutions such as the media that shapelong-term public attitudes.o Self-interest alone will not motivate businesses and the public to change established practices and behavioral patterns.o The goal of long-term climate policy must be to influence business investments, research, education, and public perceptions such that stringent emission- reduction targets—although not attainable today—become acceptable at a later time.”- Hasselmann et al. 2003o Gradual transition is possible – implementation of an effective policy within a 50 year time frame will only delay economic growth by about a year over the same periodo But we need to start!o The longer we wait the higher the costs.- Hasselmann et al. 2003o What is the role of science in this?o Assist by providing analysis of the trade offs (technologies – economics)o Explain the scientific consensus to the public and policymakers- Stern 2006o Solutions to the problem of climate change will necessitate “the promotion of a collaborative solution to games with ‘free-rider’ problems: in other words, the international community, if it is to act effectively, must find a collective global way forward, building clear long-term international agreements within which markets and entrepreneurs can function.o Building such agreements will require a shared understanding of their consequences, including what the agreements ask of each interested party and the equity issues involved. It will also require finding incentive structures to foster economic, social and political perspectives that can make collaboration more likely.”- Stern 2006o “The nature of the problem in terms of its causes and effects implies that a broad range of ethical perspectives are likely to be involved, including issues of consequentialism, equity, fairness, justice, freedom, rights, sustainability and stewardship.”- Stern 2006o Most of the growth in emissions is going to be coming from developing countries!o Is it equitable to ask them not to grow? What does that do to poverty reduction efforts?o Developing countries will face serious environmental problems because of climate change, and they do not have a lot of capacity to adjust.o Think about solutions…- Stern 2006o Adaptation Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types ofadaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc.- Stern 2006o Mitigation Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to Climate Change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.- Stern 2006o We need botho We need to support adaptation in poor countries – link adaptation and development aido Mitigation on three fronts: energy use, agriculture and deforestation- Righelato and Sprachen 2007o “Two issues need to be addressed before the efficacy of biofuels can be assessed: the net reduction in fossil carbon emissions (avoided emissions) arising from use of agriculturally derived biofuels and the effect of alternative land-use strategies on carbon stores in the biosphere.”- Righelato and Sprachen 2007o Cumulative avoided emissions per hectare over 30 years for a range of biofuels compared with the carbon sequestered over 30 years by changing cropland to forest and the loss of carbon to the atmosphere by conversion of forest to cropland. Error bars indicate the ranges of values in the literature cited- Righelato and Sprachen 2007o “If the prime object of policy on biofuels is mitigation of carbon


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