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SIU GEOG 300I - Biofuels

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GEOG 300I 1st Edition Lecture 17Biofuels- What problems are biofuels supposed to solve?o Three main rationales for current biofuels policy : National security Reducing carbon footprint - GHG emissions Support the agricultural sector*o For the Europeans, who have been quite aggressive on this type of policies, it is mostly an issue of reducing GHG emissions.o For Brazil, it is mostly a matter of national security- Energy Bill (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007)o Revised Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program mandates 36 billion gallons in 2022 under four categories: advanced biofuels (includes imported sugarcane ethanol) – minimum 5 Bgal/yr in 2022 cellulosic biofuel- minimum 16 billion gallons in 2022 biomass-based diesel – minimum volume 1 Bgal/yr in 2012 and thereafter other sources (such as corn grain ethanol) – this is capped at 15 Bgal/yr in 2022.- EthanolPlantso Current ethanol capacity: 147 plants, 8.5 billion gallons/yearo Total capacity under construction and expansion: 5.1 billion gallons/yearo 55 new ethanol plants and 6 expansion projects underwayo Source: Renewable Fuels Associationo 2.2 billion bushels of corn were used in producing fuel ethanol in 2006/2007 marketing year.o 3.1 billion bushels of corn are expected to be used in producing fuel ethanol for 2007/2008 marketing year.- BiodieselPlantso Current biodiesel capacity: 171 plants, 2.24 billion gallons/yearo Total capacity under construction and expansion: 1.23 billion gallons/yearo 60 new plants underwayo Source: National Biodiesel Boardo 2.8 billion pounds of soybean oil was used in producing biodiesel in 2006/2007 marketing year.o 3.8 billion pounds of soybean oil are expected to be used in producing biodiesel for 2007/2008 marketing year.- The effects of biofuels on crop productiono The assumption has always tended to be that these are environmentally friendly fuelso Maybe corn, which is our main current source of ethanol, is not as good a feedstock as some of the second generation feedstocks which are being studied and which will require a different technologyo However, some studies have started to cast doubts on this- The effects of biofuels on crop productiono The push for biofuels puts another source of demands on our lands besides food and fiber.o As the demand for products from the land increases, marginal lands are brought into production.o This is a very old economic principle, first discussed by the famous 19th Century British economist David Ricardo.o This marginal land that is brought into production may not be marginal at all in terms of the environmental benefits and ecosystem services it provides- The effects of biofuels on crop productiono There are two ways we can meet the increased demand for crops associated with biofuelproduction.o Change land use on the extensive margin, as Ricardo theorized,o Intensify crop production in lands that are already being cropped.o The effects of these two strategies can be quite different for several environmental impacts, and for carbon sequestration and GHG emissions in particular.o And GHG emission reduction is one of the two main pillars of biofuel policy.- The effects of biofuels on crop productiono To quantify these effects is very difficult as there are a lot of confounding factors that make the analysis very complicated.o For example, people in China are demanding to eat more meat. This increases the demand for animal feed and so increases the pressures to cultivate more land and/or to cultivate more intensively the lands we already crop.o It is not simple to disentangle the various drivers of food prices and land use. We are dealing with global markets, and there are a large variety of things that need to be considered, from the exchange rate of the dollar to farm policies across the world.- The effects of biofuels on crop productiono Producing cellulosic ethanol from corn residue has very different environmental impacts than producing ethanol from prairie grasses.o Moreover, there are big uncertainties associated with a lot of these issues as we try to forecast what will happen.o For example, if we try to forecast the effect of biofuels on the carbon cycle 50 years fromnow, we have to make hypotheses on:o the technological platform that will be dominant;o the effectiveness of REDD strategies and similar policies that use incentives to reduce forest degradation;o the demand for food (which will depend on population growth);- and the land needed to meet that demand.- The case of Brazilo In the 1970s, amid record high oil prices and a struggling sugar industry, Brazil became a world leader in ethanol production from sugarcane. Since then, Brazil has saved some $100 billion in foreign exchange while also boosting rural incomes, improving air quality, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly half of Brazil's sugarcane crop is destinedfor ethanol each year, accounting for 40 percent of transportation fuel use. However, concerns exist that ethanol-driven agricultural expansion will accelerate deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (WRI, 2005).o Over half of all cars in the country are of the flex-fuel variety, meaning that they can run on 100 percent ethanol or an ethanol-gasoline mixture.o Ethanol in Brazil comes from sugar cane, which prospers in the country’s tropical climate.o Brazil has large proven oil reserves, the second-largest in South America only to Venezuela.o Nearly 90% of all new cars sold in Brazil are flex-fuel, which slowly removes gasoline-onlycars from the fleet.o Energy Information Administration (Content source); Langdon D. Clough (Topic Editor). 2008. "Energy profile of Brazil." In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth March 4, 2007; Last revised December 11, 2008; Retrieved October 20, 2009]. <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Brazil>o Nearly 90 percent of all new cars sold in Brazil are flex-fuel vehicles, which will slowly remove gasoline-only cars from the fleet.o More or less Energy independent- What are the potential problems with biofuels?o Biofuels and food – what is the linko Biofuels and deforestation – what is the linko Biofuels and GHG – what is the link?o Why are biofuels and energy choices in general a wicked problems? The trade offso The global


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