ATMO 336 1st Edition Lecture 21 Outline of Last Lecture I. Intro to hurricanes; hurricane characteristicsII. Identifying a hurricaneIII. Relationship between surface air pressure and wind speedsIV. Anatomy of a hurricaneV. Hurricane formation and dissipationVI. Strengthening of hurricans via positive feedback loopVII. Hurricane occurance, movementVIII. Movement and seasonal timing or atlantic hurricanesIX. Predicting hurricane movement and intensity, giving public warningsX. Types of destruction at landfallXI. Outline of Current Lecture II. year to year variations of atlantic hurricanesa. occurrence in the north atlanticIII. link to global warmingIV. growing and building toward future disasters?V. Hurricane death in the USCurrent Lecture- Year to year variations of Atlantic hurricaneso Researchers conclude that there is a multi-decadal cycle of hurricane activity in the north Atlantic ocean, consisting of 20-40 year periods of increased hurricane activity followed by 20-40 year periods of decreased hurricane activityo Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)= measures total wind energy realized over the entire life cycle of all storms in the tropical season. (intensity, frequency, and duration)o ACE index= determined by adding the ACE values for all storms that formed over that yearo North atlantic basin is still more active period that began in 1955. However, it has been 20 years since this cycle began and at some point between now and 20 years from now, they cycle is expected to shift to less active hurricane activity in the north atlantic- Link to global warming?o It is plausible, but cannot be scientifically proven at the timeo Any recent increase in atlantic hurricanes can be better explained as a continuation of the multi-decadal cycle (cannot be attributed to global warming)These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.o We are gonna need many more years of good hurricane observations before we will be able to conclude without doubt that global warming is having a large impact o the intensity of hurricanes, To be able to rule out the possibility that observed fluctuations in hurricane intensity are not part of a natural climatic cycle or attributable to prior gaps in our observationso Most damaging evidenced against a direct link between global warming and hurricane intensity is based on the fact that ACE values are currently low in spite of warmer ocean waterso Impact of global warming on hurricane activity in today’s climate is small compared to how it was in the past- Growing and building toward future disasters?o Normalized hurricane damage in the US= normalizes property damages over the years by making three major adjustments One to account for overall population growth along affected coastlines Inflation Growth in wealth- Hurricane death in the USo Hurricane Katrina= many more people died than expected due to unexpected flooding, and the biggest contributor was the decision made by the many people to ignore evacuation warnings and remain home for the
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