POLS 102 1st EditionLecture 16Outline of Last Lecture1. Continuation from last lecture of: Why there are two parties in the USa. Duvergers Lawb. Biased Legal System2. Presidential Electionsa. How the economy effects presidential electionsOutline of Current Lecture1. Presidential Elections (continued)a. How the economy effects presidential electionsb. Partisanship in the electorate is also important1) Incumbent Advantages of Members of Congressc. Incumbency advantage in the housed. Sources of Advantages1. Politico style of representation2. Name Recognition3. Spending AdvantagesCurrent LecturePRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS1. The health of the economy has a big effect on who winsa. Theory: voters punish or reward incumbents based on the economy (research supports this theory).i. If the economy is healthy – the incumbent president will most likely be re-electedii. If the economy is weak – the incumbent president will most likely not be re-electedThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.b. This can be a good or a bad thing – because some aspects are out of the presidents controlc. The economy isn’t destiny of the election thoughi. Example: surprising elections of 1924, 1956, 1992d. But it’s not a surprise that presidents try to influence the economye. Partisanship during elections is also important.f. Political scientists argue that elections don’t matter that much – but the economy does. Assuming both campaigns are run pretty well.2. Partisanship in the electorate is also importanta. The Normal Vote – voting in correspondence with your party affiliationb. 1932-1980’s the democrats had a sizable advantage in party identification which helped themc. The partisan leanings of states are of great significance in affecting outcomes because of…i. The electoral College – system used to determine who wins the presidential elections1. The winner must receive majority (currently 270) of all possible electoral college votes (536)1. WV has 5 electoral college votes (3 house, 2 senate)2. States allocate the electoral college votesii. Unit Rule – the plurality winner in the states gets all of the electoral college votes1. All states use this except Maine and Nebraskaiii. Accordingly, if one party is likely to win much of the Electoral College because of the state electorate’s leaning in presidential elections years, it has a major advantage in winning presidential elections.1. It appears the democrats may have such an advantage – at leastin the past several elections2. The “Blue Wall” – states that democrats have a lock on winning1. See the Map on ecampus 2. Electoral College, The Unit Rule, and how states normally tend to vote all effect the “blue Wall”3. Depending on what states you count as reliably democratic, it appears the democrats have between 247 and 257 Electoral College votes before 2016 election starts. They only need 270; therefore, the Republicans start out with a disadvantage1. But if the economy is bad, the Republicans could win the“battleground states.”iv. Campaigns: Much Ado about nothing (Shakespeare)1. A lot of money, time and media is spent on campaigns2. Do general elections really matter? Maybe on the margin, but if each campaign is ran well they don’t really matter in determining elections. In general election, the effect is thought to be small by political scientists. Late events may matter a little bit more. 3. Campaigns can matter in presidential primary elections.INCUMBENT ADVANTAGES OF MEMBERS OF CONGRESSIncumbent Advantages – being a member of Congress confers advantages that help one win re-elections and remain a member of Congress.1) There’s an incumbency advantage in the housea. Slide on Ecampus that shows statistics on this2) Sources of Advantagesa. Politico Style of Representationi. Combines “delegate” and “trustee” perspectives1. Delegate – they vote the way their constituents want them to2. Trustee – they do what is in their constituent’s best interest, even if it’s not what they necessarily want.ii. On matters that are very important to their constituents, members serve as a trustee.b. Name Recognition Advantage – if they have any name recognition at all, it willbe of a positive nature.i. Franking Privilege – being able to send franked mail from Congress talking about all the good work they are doing in Congress, which is paid for by the government.ii. Free Media – they get covered by media outlets and press all the time.1. 5 minute speeches at the Capitoliii. Home-style – they travel home a lot to meet with constituents and donors.1. Tuesday -Thursday Club = they travel home from Washington Friday through Monday night.c. Spending Advantages – incumbents outspend challengers 6 to 1.i. They outraise and outspend challengers which leads to them having more resources to work with.1. Helps them to campaign and discourage “viable” challengers bybuilding “war chests” – lots of money in the bank.a. The viable challengers will probably lose anyways.ii. In particular, incumbents receive much more contributions from PACs.1. See slide on Ecampus that shoes PACs contribution