PS 101 1st Edition Lecture 14 Outline of Last LectureI. Campaigning in the U.S.-Party-centered campaigns-Candidate-centered campaignsII. Nominations for Congressional Elections-Closed primary-Open primaryIII. Characteristics of Primary Voters-Party ratio-Seat shift-Presidential primary-Caucus IV. The Pre-Convention CampaignV. Consequences of the Current SystemVI. The Electoral College-How it works-Effects Outline of Current Lecture I. The Political ContextII. Components of Strategy -Wholesale vs Retail PoliticsIII. Choosing Priorities and PositionsIV. How Do parties Win Elections?-The Downsian Model-The Median Voter Thereom -Converging and Diverging from the Median V. Campaign Advertising -Ads-MicrotargetingCurrent Lecture: Strategy in CampaignsI. The Political ContextA. Type of race1. Differences in presidential vs. other contestsB. Status of candidate 1. IncumbentThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.2. Challenger3. Open SeatC. Major issues and political conditions 1. Recession, war, scandal, etc.2. Partisan tidesD. Before the Campaign1. Incumbentsa. The “permanent campaign”—actions taken in office to promote reelection 2. Challengers and open seat candidatesa. Recruitmentb. When do “quality” candidates choose to run?i. When there is a weak incumbent, or a scandal, etc.—whenever they perceive their chances to win to be the highestII. Components of StrategyA. Build name recognition (get your name out there)1. In many “down ballot” races, this is the major criterionB. Highlight priorities and positions that appeal to enough individuals to win a majorityC. Mobilize your likely supporters 1. GOTV (get out to vote) or “the ground game”D. Confront your opponent 1. Opposition research, debates, campaign advertisingE. Put Strategy into Action1. Use information from pollsters and political consultants to fine tune general approach and plan timing2. Disseminate the message via news coverage, TV appearances, websites, campaign literature, and in-person campaigning3. Wholesale politics vs. retail politics a. Wholesale = indirect contact with citizensb. Retail = candidate or staff communicating directly with citizensIII. Choosing Priorities and PositionsA. Campaign platform1. Stances on issues and promises about how the candidate will actonce electedB. What affects the content of platforms? 1. The candidate’s party affiliation2. The candidate’s prior positions and activities3. The nature of his or her constituency 4. Current events and the tenor of the timesIV. How do Parties Win Elections?A. Select positions that appeal to a majority of voters B. We can think about this spatiallyC. Hotelling’s argument about firmsD. The Downsian Model1. Named after Anthony Downs2. Assumptionsa. Unidimensional Policy Spaceb. Majoritarian Electoral Systemc. 2 Candidatesd. Candidates Motivated by Electione. Voters choose candidate closest to them3. Result? a. Candidates converge to the median The Median Voter TheoremA. In a two-party competition along a single issue dimension, if the parties want to win the election, and have freedom to move their policy-ideological positions, they willconverge in their positions in the policy-ideology space around the median voter’spreference.E. Do Candidates Actually Converge?1. Did Obama and Romney take the same positions in the 2012 campaign?a. They talked about different issues, so they didn’t necessarily converge b. End up with two moderate partiesF. Reasons for Divergence1. Return to assumptions of Downsian model2. Two-stage elections3. What if candidates are motivated by elections AND by policy?a. Candidates may be unwilling to converge to the median voter, because winning is not the only thing motivating them4. What if voters think about factors other than policy when making decisions?a. Performance of governing partyb. Psychological attachment to a partyc. Name recognition of candidatesV. Campaign AdvertisingA. Modern campaigns conducted primarily through advertising 1. The focus of most campaign spending2. TV advertising is still king, but campaigns are taking advantage of `developments in data collection and technology to microtarget B. What Do Candidates Try To Achieve?1. Name recognition2. Introduce their positions and priorities 3. Highlight their good points and draw contrasts with their opponentsC. Incumbent and Non-Incumbents1. In general:a. Incumbents tend to campaign on their accomplishments and run relatively positive campaignsb. Challengers point out problems and how they will solve them, and criticize the incumbent and his/her partyD. Some Famous Ads1. Eisenhower’s “Ike for President” (1952) 2. Johnson’s “Daisy Girl” (1964)3. Reagan’s “Morning in America” (1984)E. Are Campaigns More Negative Today?1. Depends on what we mean by negativea. Incivility vs. comparisons and contrastsb. John Geer’s argument about what negative/ positive ads can teach usi. Says that negative ads carry more information; tells us something factual2. The nature of campaigns in the 1800s3. But there is some evidence that negativity increased in advertising in 2012a. Candidates and parties are no longer the only game in towni. 527s and other organizations can run adsii. These ads often more negative than those sponsored by candidates or partiesii. Why might this be?— Candidate doesn’t want to look bad or rude, but they don’t mind someone else doing that for