POLSC 135 1st Edition Lecture 18 Outline of Last Lecture: Modernization Theory (short)Outline of Current Lecture: Classical Modernization Theory Current Lecture:I. Classical Modernization Theory - Most economic explanations for democracy can be linked to a family of explanations called “Modernization Theory”. - All societies develop through a series of stages (see Rostow) - “Stage theory” of development - All countries pass through the same historical stages of economic development.- Societies grow to become quite complex. - The more well to do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy. (Lipset 1959) - Modernization theory predicts that as countries develop economically, they are A) more likely to become democratic and B) more likely to remain democratic. - Definitions of mature society make it look remarkably like western Europe and the United States - Implicit notion that when societies grow up, they look like us. - One of the central implications of modernization theory is that there should be a strong relationship how economically developed a country is and whether it is a democracy. - Does this mean that modernization theory is “right”? - Modernization Theory predicts that countries are more likely to become and remain democratic as they become richer. - Survival Story- Przeworski – The survival story predicts that democracy is more likely to survive as countries develop and become richer but it is not likely to emerge. Przeworski found that no democracy collapsed so long as it had a per capita income higher than that of argentina in 1975: $6055. - Bottom line: - As income increases, it makes it more likely a country will become democratic. - As increases in income make it more likely a country will stay democratic. - We now look for a variant of modernization theory, which says that it is not income per se that encourages democratization but rather the changes in the socioeconomic structure that accompany increases in income in the modernization process. - Increase wealth -> changes -> democracy These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. It is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.- As societies move through stages, the structure of the economy changes. - Specifically we see a shift from a focus on agriculture to a focus on manufacturing and services. - Key Point: The state can really tax or predate only on those assets that they can observe, that is, fixed assets. The state will have difficulty taxing mobile assets. - Bates and Lien (1985) argue that the increased ability of the gentry to hide their assets from state predation changed the balance of power between modernizing social groups and the power of the Crown. End
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