PSC 124 1st Edition Lecture 10 Outline of Last Lecture I. Foreign policy, rational decision making, and liberalist alternatives to the rational modelII. Individual decision makingIII. Crisis management and ambiguityIV. Decision making in groups Outline of Current Lecture I. Theories about the causes of war- Four levels of analysisII. Conflicts of ideas: ethnic conflictCurrent LectureI. What causes war?- theories: Individual level1. organized around levels of analysis2. individual level+ leaders behave rationally- can achieve more by war than other means (realist views) +leaders behave irrationally- cognitive bias, groupthink, “crazy leaders” 3. neither theory holds up well+wars “caused” by both kinds of leaders+ neither a reliable predictor of war- theories: Domestic Level1. characteristics of states or societies that make them more prone to violence2. aggressive capitalists, totalitarian communists, militarism, and democracy are notparticularly powerful explanations or predictors of war or peace- theories: Interstate level 1. realists believe war is a product of power relations and balance 2. power transition theory (when one country tries to replace the hegemon)3. deterrence 4. arms races5. liberalists believe that trade prevents war because states are interested in keeping their economic relations intact, but inequalities produced by trade systems can cause war - theories: the global level1. war is cyclicalThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.2. war likelihood is becoming obsolete+economic integration+powerfulness of today’s a military technology+global political norm and integration+spread of democracy3. not great predictorsII. Categories of conflict- types of causes may overlap in a particular conflict- conflicts of ideas1. ethnicity2. religion3. ideology- conflicts of interests 1. territory2. control of national governments3. economics- intractable conflict: conflict that is resistant to being resolved- clash of civilizations: in the Cold War, it was an ideological conflict; conflict afterwards conflict will be between civilizations. When different identity groups come within contact they will necessarily clash; difference causes conflict- group conflict1. history of discrimination2. post-colonialism3. economic inequalities4. political oppression5. manipulation of identity by leaders to mobilize6. when a conflict endures, social processes weave identity into the conflict7. “collusion of enemies”- theory of identity &intractable conflict1. the identity dynamic: the tendency for human beings, individually and in groups, to establish, maintain, and protect a sense of self- meaning, predictability, and purpose2. intractability: resistance of a conflict to be resolved- dynamic of ethnic identity1. powerful identity, with intense motion2. alleged common origins and descent3. shared history, shared sense of fate4. strong sense of belonging5. evoked by cultural ties like religion6. shared political memories, often of suffering7. exclusive, identity defined in opposition- stages of conflict escalation: threat, distortion, rigidification, collusion- threat1. a response to information or events which are perceived to invalidate core notionof self2. may be material or psychological3. linking of physical and psychological sense of well-being- distortion1. psychological response to threat- to force meaning onto information or event that invalidating2. case of interracial or inter-ethnic marriage- rigidification1. extreme separation2. dehumanization3. tolerance of extreme groups- collusion1. integration of the conflict into identity2. socialization of children3. pressures toward cohesiveness4. celebration, rituals, language5. valuing of the group over the individual self 6. tolerance of violence 7. sacrifice/ martyrdom8. fear of the loss of the conflict itself9. conflict is celebrated and integrated into daily life and group identity so the possibility of the loss of the conflict is