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UIUC PS 101 - Political Polarization in America

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PS 101 1st Edition Lecture 9Outline of Last Lecture I. Measuring Public Opinion-Normative Reasons-Practical ReasonsII. History of Polling and Surveys-Straw PollsIII. What Makes a Survey “Good”-Good Questions-Good SampleIV. Non-Random SamplingV. Things to Watch Out For-Jargon-Leading Questions-Threatening Questions -Double-Barreled Questions-Double Negative QuestionsOutline of Current Lecture I. Review of Public OpinionII. Qualities of Opinion-Preferences-Intensity-Stability-Distribution III. More on Distribution-Normal-Skewed-Bimodal-DeterminingIV. PolarizationV. Opinion Polarization and the “Culture War”-FiorinaVI. Aggregate Opinion in the U.S.Current Lecture: Political Polarization in AmericaThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.I. Review of Public OpinionA. What is it?1. Citizen’s attitudes on an issue or questionB. What is important to consider in measuring it? 1. Sampling procedurea. Random sampling is best2. Questionnaire designa. Question wording is importantC. How do people answer questions? 1. Fully formed opinions2. Latent opinionsa. Opinions exist, but are more like considerations II. Qualities of OpinionA. Preferences1. What side of the issue are people on? a. They side where their preferences are2. Examples?a. You can say Obama is the best, he’s doing ok, or he’s not doing well at all (depends how strong their preference is)B. Intensity 1. How strongly do people hold their preferences?2. Why is this important? a. Politicians may try harder to inform the public/sway preferences C. Stability1. The extent to which public opinion remains the same over time2. In general, aggregate opinion tends to change slowlyD. Distribution1. Shape of the curve when all responses are counted and plotted in a frequency distribution 2. Why is this important?a. Distributions tells us what may be possible to do/accomplish on a specific subject matter, as well as what people’s preferences areE. An Example1. Grades on a testa. A—15% b. B—20%c. C—35% d. D—20% e. F—10% III. More on Distributions A. Normal Distribution1. What does it look like? a. Bell curve, inverted U2. How is opinion distributed?a. Majority in the middle, with declining amounts in the tails3. What does this tell us? a. Opinion is moderate, not particularly polarizedi. Agreement will be relatively easy to obtainb. “The shape of democracy” B. Skewed Distributions1. What does it look like?a. Approximates a normal curve, but majority is slightly to the left or to the right of center2. How is opinion distributed?a. Most are still near the middle, with few on the extremes—bent to opinion3. What does this tell us?a. Compared to the normal curve, it's easier to identify what the majority wants, but it's also fairly easy for both sides to compromiseb. An Examplei. Opinion on the death penalty— polls show that most people favor it, but they want to use it sparinglyC. Bimodal Distribution1. What does it look like?a. U-shaped; the inverse of a normal curve2. How is opinion distributed?a. Lots of people in the extremes, few in the middlei. The shape of polarization3. What does this tell us? a. Difficult to come up with a compromise; a lot of conflictb. An example i. Israeli and Palestinian opinion c. Others?i. Opinion in the U.S.D. Determining Distributions1. What do we need to know?a. Survey questions with more than just yes/no answers b. Why does this matter?i. Need more information to create a distribution graph IV. PolarizationA. What is it?1. Growing ideological divide in opinion 2. Moving toward a bimodal distributionB. Where might it occur? 1. Among elites2. Among citizens3. Among both V. Opinion Polarization and the “Culture War”A. Book by Fiorina that explored polarizationB. Basic Propositions of Culture War Thesis1. Americans' positions are very polarized2. This polarization has increased over time3. Cultural/moral issues have increased in salienceC. Fiorina’s Response 1. No they aren’t2. No it hasn’t3. NopeD Evidence Number One1. How far apart are the positions of voters in “red” and “blue” states?a. Red- Republican, Blue- Democraticb. The two aren’t that far apartE. Evidence Number Two1. Have opinions become more polarized across time?a. Generally the same division, no major changeF. Why All the “Culture War” Talk?1. Fiorina says:a. We confuse “closely divided” with “deeply divided”b. Political activists and elites may be more polarized, but they are not typical of the public as a wholec. The idea of a "culture war" makes for a dramatic story2. Fiorina’s Explanation #1a. Elites have become more polarized, so the choices given to voters are more polarizedJFK and Ike are closer to each other than completely conservative or liberal. (On a 1-12 scale, they are like a 5 and 7)Gore and Bush are on more opposite ends of the spectrum. (On a 1-12 scale, they are close to a 3 and 9)3. Fiorina’s Explanation #2a. There is better "sorting" into the parties now, so their aggregate positions look farther apart, even though underlying opinions of individuals have not changedi. If you asked people what their views are and whatparty they are a part of, there should be a similarity, but this argues that a long time ago there were people who were in a party and held views of the opposite party. People were not sorting correctly, but this has gotten better in recent years.F. Criticisms of Fiorina1. “Polarization is not a result of failure of representation; it is a result of successful representation” -Abramowitz2. “Small changes in voters’ identifications at the extremes has brought big changes in preferences” -LevenduskyVI. Aggregate Opinion in the


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UIUC PS 101 - Political Polarization in America

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