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UIUC PS 101 - Measuring Public Opinion

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PS 101 1st Edition Lecture 8Outline of Last Lecture I. The Civic Culture (Cont’d from previous lecture)II. Political Knowledge-What do people know?-Why do we care?III.Early Studies of Opinion-Critiques-Revised ViewsIV. Surveying Political PrinciplesV. Political Ideology-Identification in the U.S.Outline of Current Lecture I. Measuring Public Opinion-Normative Reasons-Practical ReasonsII. History of Polling and Surveys-Straw PollsIII. What Makes a Survey “Good”-Good Questions-Good SampleIV. Non-Random SamplingV. Things to Watch Out For-Jargon-Leading Questions-Threatening Questions -Double-Barreled Questions-Double Negative QuestionsCurrent LectureI. Measuring Public OpinionA. What is “Public Opinion”?1."The collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue or question“These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.2. V.O. Key a scholar,—"Those opinions held by private persons which government finds it prudent to heed.”B. Why Heed Public Opinion?1. Normative reasonsa. Majoritarianism—government should do what the majority wantsb. Pluralism—government should allow free expression of minority opinions2. Practical reasonsa. Can legitimize political authorityi. Democracies are viewed as legitimate because they are invested in the peopleb. Can help leaders attain and stay in officec. Keeping up with public opinion can help them to mold itas welli. Elected officials may give information to the publicto get an opinion they believe is bestC. Some Complications1. Is there just one public? a. General publicb. Attentive Publicc. Policy and opinion elite2. How should we assess opinion?a. Informally i. Sense of public will—can be based on intuitions, what their advisors tell them, what they are hearingthemselves ii. Letters to editoriii. Vote choices3. With use of sample surveys and modern polling techniques4. An Examplea. Kaiser Family Foundation: asks people about a health reform bill that was signed into law in 2010; gives them different options to choose from in the survey regarding the bill.II. History of Polling and SurveysA. What’s the difference? B. Early Examples1. Karl Marx sent out polls to get public opinion regarding CommunismC. Straw polls1. Unofficial vote to gauge opinion on some issue 2. We use the term today to refer to any non-scientific poll or surveya. Does not use scientific methodsb. Iowa Straw Poll3. The Literary Digest debaclea. A magazine that did a straw poll before every presidential election— was mostly right until the 1936 election (predicted Alf Landon would win, but Roosevelt did)D. The Birth of Modern PollsIII. What Makes a Survey “Good”?A. Good questions! B. Good surveysample!1. A subgroup of a population that you survey to make inferences about the whole population2.Typically, all adults or all “likely voters”C. Selecting a Good Sample1. Gold standard = random selectiona. Every member of the population has an equal chance of showingup in the sample2. Ways of accomplishing this?a. Choosing randomly from a listb. Random digit dialingc. Geographic cluster sampling IV. Non-Random SamplingA. How Big Does the Sample Need to Be?1. National samples of 1,500 cases will be accurate within +/- three percentage points2. If polls say that a candidate will get 52% of the vote, plus or minus three percent, how confident are we that he or she will win?a. Not very confident, because only 49-55% which means there is a chance they could lose. Need a bigger percent to be positive.B. Other Sampling Concerns1. Are you reaching cell phones and/or landlines?a. Can vary by population2. Are the types of people who answer the phone when you call representative of the population as a whole?a. Someone whose home (elderly people, stay at home parent) vs someone who has other things to do (work, errands, etc)b. The person’s attitude towards politics can affect responses when people answer the phone.C. Asking Good Questions1.Two types of questions a. Open ended— similar to essay questionb. Closed ended— similar to multiple choose questions2. Question wordinga. Why does it matter? i. The way a question is asked can influence the responseb. Some examplesi. Asking how many children a person has (stepchildren, disowned from a family, children who have died, etc. even just on a simple question)V. Things to Watch Out For: A. Jargon1.Words that the average person might not understanda. This can result in noisy responses leading to uncertaintyin what the public believes.B. Leading Questions1. Questions that are phrased in a way that makes the respondent feel that theresearcher expects a particular answer; or questions in which one response seems much more socially desirablea. “Do you vote?” —gives you a one word responseb. “Are you in favor or opposed to gun control?” vs “ You wouldn’t say you were opposed to gun control, would you?” will give you different responses.C.Threatening Questions1. Ask about things people might have trouble admitting to2. Examples?a. “Are you a racist?”, “Have you commented crimes?”— Noone would admit to these things.3. If a survey researcher wants to find out about these attitudes,what might heor she do?a. Use The List Experimenti.“Now I am going to read you three things that sometimes make people angry or upset. After I read all three, just tell me HOW MANY of them upset you. I don't want to know which ones, justHOW MANY”.(1) The federal government increasing the tax on gasoline; (2) Professional athletes getting million-dollar contracts;(3) Large corporations polluting the environmentD.Double-barreled questions1. Ask two or more questions in onea. “The economy and terrorism are the two most importantproblems facing the country today” Agree or disagree? i. Some might think neither are important or that both are, leading to a clear response, but others may be split between the two and won’t have a clear answer.E. Double negative questions1. Questions where it is not obvious what one is agreeing/disagreeing witha. 1992 Roper Poll on the Holocausti. “does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?” — 22% said it seemed possible it never happened.ii. Re asked, “Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certain that


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UIUC PS 101 - Measuring Public Opinion

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