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CSU PSY 100 - Hindsight Bias

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PSY100 1st Edition Lecture 2Outline of Last Lecture I. Origin of PsychologyII. Psychology is BornIII. Major Psychological PerspectivesIV. Basic ResearchOutline of Current Lecture I. Research StrategiesII. Psychology and the Scientific MethodIII. Research MethodsCurrent LectureI. Research StrategiesA. Research is the systematic investigation to establish facts and reach new conclusions.B. It is also challenging, time consuming, and susceptive to error.C. Hindsight Bias- I “knew it all along” phenomenon.1. After an outcome, we believe we could have accurately predicted it.D. Confirmation Bias- Tendency to search for info that confirms beliefs and ignores evidence 1. To be scientific, you must find disconfirming evidence2. Real World Examples- Weather can aggravate arthritis (not proven), the psychic really knows me (wrong)II. Psychology and the Scientific MethodA. Psychology as a science1. Need rigorous methods to overcome biases, use the scientific method as a recipefor researchB. The Research Process1. Research question is first, then theory follows, then hypothesis is final stepThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.2. Hypothesis is testable if variables are operationalized3. Operationalization- How variables are defined and measuredIII. Research MethodsA. Descriptive Methods1. Case Study- one subject is studied in depth. Example is the Phineas Gage case. This descriptive method can study rare conditions without violating ethics. Limitation of Case study is that it cannot be replicated universally.2. Naturalistic Observation- Unobtrusive observation in a “natural” setting. Benefit is the possibility of getting a “true” reading. Limitation is not knowing why relationship is true, can just simply describe the relationship.3. Survey- Self-report of attitudes or behaviors. Benefit is getting a lot of data quickly. Limitation is the honesty of participants and the convenience sampling.4. Sampling- Population Vs. Sample. Population is everyone we need to study. Sample is small set of population.5. Random Sampling- where everyone in the population has an equal chance of participation in study. Random sampling is hard to achieve and unlikely. Need sampling to be representative so it is an accurate reflection of a population.B. Correlational Studies- Looking at two variables and how strongly they are related to each other, may predict something.1. Positive Correlation- Variable change in the same direction2. Negative Correlation- Variables change in different directions3. Correlation does not equal causation. Correlation can imply causation but it needs to be


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