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UVM POLS 021 - Gender/Ethnic Diversity in Politics and Poling
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POLS021 1st Edition Lecture 10 Outline of Last Lecture I. Levels within the Political System/Supports and Socializationi. Identification Modelsii. State of ChangeII. WASPi. Lineage, Elitism, and Educationii. Re-Socialization of for Formerly Excluded Groups Outline of Current Lecture:I. Gender and Ethnic Diversity in Politicsa. ALANA Governors and Senatorsb. Women Governors and Senatorsc. Presidential Cabinetsd. Secretary of Treasury/Defense/LaborII. Public Opinion, Policy Linkages, and Institutional Confidencea. Different kinds of existing Publicsb. Interview Situation Comparisonc. 1936 Mail Surveyd. George Gallupe. Random SamplingThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.f. Polling IndustryCurrent Lecture:Mapping Gender and Ethnic Diversity:“ALANA” – People of color (African, Latina, Asian, Native American)Southern states were the first to elect ALANA representatives (most likely because of the stronger population diversity in southern states)ALANA Governors/Senators:1920-1940: New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas1940-1960: Hawaii1960-1980: California, Arizona, and Massachusetts 1980-1990: Florida and Virginia1990-2000: Washington, Colorado, and Illinois2000-2010: Louisiana, New York, and New Jersey2010-2012: Texas and South CarolinaWomen Governors and Senators:1920: None1920-1940 Elected Women: Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Arkansas1920-1940 Appointed Women: Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia(Political husbands often appointed wives so the family could gain more political power)(Appointed = Served without being elected)1940-1960 Elected Women: Nebraska and Maine1960-1980 Elected Women: Washington, Oregon, Kansas, Alabama, and Connecticut1960-1980 Appointed Women: Minnesota1980-1990 Elected Women: Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Vermont, and Maryland1980-1990 Appointed Women: Arizona, Ohio, and New Hampshire1990-2000 Elected Women: 1990-2000 Appointed Women: California, Arizona, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and New Jersey1990-2000 Appointed Women: Utah, North Dakota, Missouri, and Massachusetts2000-2010 Elected Women: Montana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Missouri, Michigan, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, Alaska, Hawaii, and New York2010-2012 Elected Women: Wisconsin, North Dakota, and MassachusettsBoston, Massachusetts has never elected a black, Jewish, or woman as their mayorThe Presidential Cabinet has great diversity:President Bill Clinton was the first man to elect a majority of diversity to his cabinet1) Minority were the minority in his cabinet2) Gays in the military3) Basically said that Hilary was going to work very closely with him (co/president)George W. Bush was the 2nd in breakthrough cabinet diversity appointments ever. The Secretary of Defense/Treasury has never been diverseThe Secretary of Labor has been diverse for the longestPublic Opinion, Policy Linkages, Institutional Confidence:Different Kinds of Publics that Exist:Selection of Final Authority Non-Selection of Final AuthorityPublic Enforcement of SanctionParticipating SupportingPublic Non-Enforcement of SanctionsDelegations Complying Comparison of Interview Situations:Feature Mail Phone HomeCost of Interviewing Cheap-no interviewersCheap-no transportationExpensiveCost of RandomSamplingExpensive Cheap with random digit dialingExpensiveResponse Rate Very Low Good HighestBias People who are motivated (polarized)Middle Class/RepublicanPeople who are at homeLength of Interview Short Short LongCandor of Interview Limited Limited Best1936 Mail-Screw-Up Survey: Dodgers newspaper sent out 10 million postcards. They got back 20% of those postcards. They predicted that FDR was going to get swamped by Landon; so whatwent wrong?They used telephone books and automobile registrations to receive addresses to mail the post cards to. Only people who were not hit as badly during the Depression could afford to own telephones and automobiles (Rich Republicans). George Gallup: In-home survey (public opinion poll)—Predicted that FDR was going to win 3 outof 3 times.The survey was wrong for the fourth election because the timing was wrong; the surveys and polling were stopped several weeks before the election and missed a late shift towards Truman. This shift occurred because support slipped away from two third party candidates back to the major parties. Since most votes shifted to Truman, he won the election).They also did not have random sampling at the time of the 1948 election, which is much more sensitive to what is currently happening in an election. Random Sampling was developed in studied on soldiers during WW2. Poling is an inexact science that has become a multi-million $


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