Previous Lecture OutlineI. Scientific ThinkingII. Critical Thinkinga. barriersCurrent Lecture OutlineIII. Critical Thinkinga. barriers continuedi. why?IV. Scientific Methoda. Theoryb. Hypothesisc. ResearchV. “Good Theory”a. True vs Good TheoriesVI. Goals of Scientific ResearchCurrent LectureAvailability BiasTendency to make judgments on the basis of which examples come most easily to mindInfluenced by recent eventsUnconscious processInfluences judgmentEx. New JerseyPeople think of Jersey Shore and crimeGambler’s FallacyTend to believe that the odds for occurrence for a random event in the future depends on what already happened in the pastEx. Flip a coin1. Heads (random event)2. Heads “3. Heads “4. Guess what’s nextpeople will guess tails because its been heads alreadyWhy do we have these 6 things?Because humans are constantly looking for explanations even when there is noneScientific MethodA process to get rid/ control biasTheoryExplanation based on observationHypothesisPrediction based on theoryResearchTest hypothesis1. Support theory2. Fail to support theoryTheory- interconnected ideas/concepts used to explain prior observations and to make predictionsBroadHypothesis- a testable prediction about the outcome that would best support the theoryResearch- the systematic and careful collection of dataAvoids bias“Good Theory”1. Generates testable hypotheses2. Is Falsifiableresearch results either support or contradict the theory’s predictions3. Is parsimoniousexplains many observations under one simple theory/explanationit’s the simplest, smallest explanation of a theorynew facts can be incorporated without having to change the theoryTrue vs. Good TheoriesSome are “good” but not always “true”Not supported by data from well-designed researchGoals of Scientific ResearchDescribeExplainPredictControl/applyPsych 1000 1st Edition Lecture 3Previous Lecture OutlineI. Scientific ThinkingII. Critical Thinkinga. barriers Current Lecture OutlineIII. Critical Thinkinga. barriers continuedi. why?IV. Scientific Methoda. Theoryb. Hypothesisc. ResearchV. “Good Theory”a. True vs Good TheoriesVI. Goals of Scientific Research Current Lecture- Availability Bias o Tendency to make judgments on the basis of which examples come most easily to mind Influenced by recent events Unconscious process Influences judgment Ex. New Jersey- People think of Jersey Shore and crime- Gambler’s Fallacyo Tend to believe that the odds for occurrence for a random event in the future depends on what already happened in the past Ex. Flip a coin 1. Heads (random event) 2. Heads “ 3. Heads “ 4. Guess what’s next- people will guess tails because its been heads already Why do we have these 6 things?- Because humans are constantly looking for explanations even when there is none Scientific Method- A process to get rid/ control biaso Theory Explanation based on observationo Hypothesis Prediction based on theoryo Research  Test hypothesiso 1. Support theoryo 2. Fail to support theory Theory- interconnected ideas/concepts used to explain prior observations and to make predictions- Broad Hypothesis- a testable prediction about the outcome that would best support thetheory  Research- the systematic and careful collection of data - Avoids bias  “Good Theory”- 1. Generates testable hypotheses- 2. Is Falsifiable o research results either support or contradict the theory’s predictions- 3. Is parsimoniouso explains many observations under one simple theory/explanationo it’s the simplest, smallest explanation of a theoryo new facts can be incorporated without having to change the theory  True vs. Good Theories- Some are “good” but not always “true”o Not supported by data from well-designed research Goals of Scientific Research- Describe- Explain- Predict-