UT GOV 312L - Exam 2 Study Guide (65 pages)

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Exam 2 Study Guide

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Exam 2 Study Guide


Study Guide
University of Texas at Austin
Gov 312l - Issues and Policies in American Government
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GOV 312L 1nd Edition Exam 2 Study Guide Thursday October 16 Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Deterrence th Lecture readings 1 What is deterrence What are the main elements of deterrence To discourage attack through threat of retaliation nuclear weapons may not be able to prevent attack but can retaliate to where you don t want to attack in the FIRST PLACE o as opposed to defense actions that prevents an adversary from taking an action Elements o Severe conflict SU and US intense enemies negotiation not an option o Assumption of rationality enemy must know what nuclear weapons can do to them put their own self preservation first o Retaliatory threat each side has to weather an attack and then can attack back I can t prevent an attack but I will survive and tear you a new one o Unacceptable damage retaliatory attack needs to be devastating in order to make deterrence work If it just weakens enemy weakens deterrence o Credibility each side is to be able to follow through If enemy doesn t think you ll strike back then you done goofed o Stability adversary should not attack either side should have an incentive not to attack meant to avoid war 2 What is Clauswitz s idea of total war and how is the idea of total war associated with mutually assured destruction Total war is a war so terrible where both sides are assured massive amounts of destruction that the war itself no longer serves the purpose of protecting the state 3 What is mutually assured destruction MAD What is a second strike capability and why is it essential to mutually assured destruction MAD is if two sides use nuclear weapons then both will end up being annihilated Second strike capability is a country s assured ability to respond to an attack if one country is hit with a nuclear weapon will they have enough weapons left to attack back neither side has an incentive to start a war And when there is not a reason to go to war one would have to make the escalation of a nuclear war credible Deterrence is meant to avoid war not to wage war each side has 2nd strike capabilities Submarines loaded with nuclear weapons and foreign missile bases Turkey and Cuba assure second strike capability for either side 4 What is the problem of credibility in nuclear deterrence Explain why the effectiveness of deterrent threats depends on credibility Do you have the will resolve to execute these threats Do you have the capability to execute these threats Will you surrender your own cities people to execute these threats If no one believes your answers to any of those questions then your threat of deterrence is invalid 5 Explain how three aspects of credibility capabilities resolve and protecting one s allies affect the credibility problem For credibility you need 3 Capability o You have second strike weapons that will survive the initial first strike o During cold war Submarines improve credibility Resolve o Demonstrate resolve Don t back down o If actors really want something willing to pay lots of cost to get it o make public threats Kennedy did this using TV during Cuba o Another way Leave something to chance to demonstrate your resolve Have bombers fly unguarded over enemy territory at risk of dropping Allies protection Sacrifice your cities to protect allied cities o Los Angeles for W Germany o Tripwires Troops along North South Korean border and West Berlin o Eisenhower wanted to give W Germany their own nuclear weapons 5 What is extended deterrence and how do alliance commitments complicate credible deterrent threats Explain how questions about credibility complicated American deterrent threats against the Soviet Union to protect Western Europe What actions were taken and contemplated by the United States during the Cold War to enhance the credibility of its extended deterrence threats Extended deterrence preventing an armed attack against another state Peace during the Cold War rested heavily on threats of the US attacking Soviet Union if they invaded West Germany o If Soviet s doubt US credibility they will attack and take West Berlin if US allies mainly France doubts US credibility they will exit the alliance moving to Soviet Union side or neutrality leaving US on its own o Once Soviets had lots of nuclear bombs were we willing to sacrifice our own land to protect Germans in West Berlin o Solutions to enhance credibility make irrevocable commitments Tripwires sent US troops to West Berlin and Korean peninsula mainly to die It would be hard for US to retract nuclear threats if thousands of Americans had died in an initial commitment Give West Germany nuclear weapons so it s no longer our problem 6 Explain the basis of stability under mutually assured destruction and how missile defense systems undermine that stability Stability rests on threats to engage in violence not the actual use of military force So the threat of mutually assured destruction deters nuclear war If we can defend ourselves with missiles to shoot down approaching nuclear weapons then one side can gain first strike capabilities and upset the balance of power and only one side gets annihilated o it would survive the nuclear attack but when launch the missiles missiles would be shot down o defense might destabilize o missile defense removes second strike capabilities state that does not have missiles and could be attacked has different set of motives two options for vulnerable state arms build up or preemptive strike either way missile defense destabilizing states have great incentives to start nuclear war Ironically having a better defense against nuclear weapons is more likely to lead to a nuclear war 7 What is nuclear proliferation Compare and contrast the pessimistic and optimistic perspectives on how nuclear proliferation will affect international stability Nuclear proliferation more countries getting nuclear weapons or increasing their stockpiles Pessimist More State with nukes means more risk as they re not as stable as the US underdeveloped more prone to accidentally use of nuclear weapons o Scott Sagan o New entries to the nuclear club may not have responsibility and integrity more likely to be poorer possess fewer nukes other state may want to strike while they have a small nuclear force tend to value readiness more than safety greater risk of accidental use They could sell to third parties or terrorist organization o Israel is scared of Iran getting nukes Vulnerability during stage of weapons development may heighten preventative war o pursuit of nukes

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