Understanding of Sun Earth Connections Space Weather Prof Daniel N Baker APS Physics Chair Committee on Solar Space Physics NAS Co Director NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling Director Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado Boulder February 2008 Yohkoh Soft X rays The 11 Year Solar Activity Cycle February 2008 Annual Sunspot Number 1900 2003 Explorer I GPS Program Apollo Program Different parts of the solar cycle contribute to different types of activity that can adversely affect technology and humans Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration Pipeline Operations Anti Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems OMEGA LORAN Over the Horizon Radar Solar Terres Research Applic Satellites Research Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Radar Short wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers February 2008 February 2008 A few of the agencies and industries that rely on space weather services today Civilian Spacecraft at Geostationary Orbit U S power grid infrastructure Commercial airline industry Dep of Transportation GPS NASA human space flight activities Satellite launch and operations DoD Operations DOE Nuclear Reg Comm Schlumberger NY PJM Grid Ball Loral NESDIS SOCC Digital Globe Boeing Lockheed Aerospace Echostar 200 NASA Space Command ISS Astronauts FAA Sunspot Number 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 Sunspot Cycles 1980 1990 2000 American United Airlines Northwest Continental February 2008 February 2008 1 The Disturbed Solar Wind Coronal Mass Ejections CMEs Occur most often near the peak of the Sun s 11 year activity cycle Propel 109 tons of matter into interplanetary space Can travel at speeds exceeding 2000 km s Drive interplanetary shocks Can trigger geomagnetic storms when they impact Earth s magnetosphere February 2008 February 2008 Coronal Mass Ejection Earth Impact Courtesy of NASA High Energy Ion Effects D N Baker How to Cope with Space Weather Science 297 1486 2002 February 2008 The Active Sun July 2000 February 2008 Background Produced by Solar Energetic Particles SOHO EIT 2000 07 14 07 00 UT SOHO EIT 2000 07 14 13 28 UT February 2008 February 2008 2 SOHO Pictures of the Sun Halloween 2003 The Halloween Storms in the Heliosphere February 2008 February 2008 Dramatic Van Allen Belt Changes D N Baker et al Nature December 2004 High Energy Electrons February 2008 High Energy Electrons Deep Dielectric Charging February 2008 Electrostatic Discharge ESD Definition 1 Electrons bury themselves in the insulator 4 Electrons build up faster than they leak off 2 Electrons slowly leak out of the insulator 5 Discharge electrical spark that damages or destroys the material A transfer of electrostatic charge between bodies at different electrostatic potentials caused by direct contact or induced by an electrostatic field 3 Influx of electrons increases to levels higher than the leakage rate February 2008 February 2008 3 ESD Damage News Accounts of Galaxy 4 Failure HA 2700 surface damage in the C2 MOS capacitor Courtesy of JPL 175X It is not always possible to prove that conditions in the space environment cause problems with communication devices such as cell phones and pagers but it is one explanation 4300X February 2008 Satellite Industry February 2008 Satellite Launch operations Lockheed Martin s Atlas Titan and Athena rockets have a launch red line condition of 100 pfu at 50 MeV Solar storm warnings and alerts uses Instruments and or spacecraft turned off or safed Launch of Kodiak Star Postponed Due to Solar Flare Maneuver planning Anomaly assessments Orbit determination accuracy Increased spacecraft and instrument monitoring for health and safety during solar storms The SEC provides an invaluable and essential service to space operators Director of DG Space Operations 22 March 2006 The launch of Kodiak Star has been postponed for at least an additional 24 hours A solar flare of significant magnitude occurred this morning at 7a m ADT 11 a m EDT producing a proton flux exceeding the allowable launch criteria for the Athena I These high levels of charged particles can cause a data upset in the launch vehicle guidance system affecting its reliability Sep 2001 February 2008 Airlines and Space Weather February 2008 HF Communication only GOES SXI GOES XRS Loss of High Frequency HF communications during a solar flare The night side of the Earth is unaffected Image from NASA SOHO Satellite February 2008 Polar flights departing from North America use VHF 30 300 MHz comm or Satcom with Canadian ATCs and Arctic Radio Flights rely on HF 3 30 MHz communication inside the 82 degree circle February 2008 4 Aviation Growth Global Positioning System Customers Deep sea drilling operations Surveying companies land surveying topographic work and property boundary analysis The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340 500 600 B777 300ER and B777 200LR FAA WAAS Wide Area Augmentation System Next 6 Years Airlines operating China US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Various DoD operations Next 12 Years 1 8 million polar route passengers by 2018 February 2008 Wide Area Augmentation System WAAS Ionosphere Disturbances impact vertical error limits defined by the FAA s Lateral Navigation Vertical Navigation LNAV VNAV specification to be no more that 50 meters Commercial aircraft unable to use WAAS for precision approaches February 2008 GPS Growth Global Positioning System used In vehicle navigation systems railway control highway traffic management emergency response commercial aviation and much more NAVSTAR USA GLONASS Russia Galileo Europe GPS Global Production Value expected growth 2003 13 billion 2008 21 5 billion 2017 757 billion Industrial Technology Research Institute ITRI Mar 2005 Space weather creates positioning errors larger than 50 meters A mid latitude problem where most users reside February 2008 Electrical Power Grid Human Space