NBER WORKING PAPER SERIESIT’S FOURTH DOWN AND WHAT DOES THE BELLMAN EQUATION SAY?A DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF FOOTBALL STRATEGYDavid RomerWorking Paper 9024http://www.nber.org/papers/w9024NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138June 2002I am indebted to Ben Allen, Ryan Edwards, Mario Lopez, Travis Reynolds, and Evan Rose for outstandingresearch assistance, and to Christina Romer for invaluable discussions. The views expressed herein are thoseof the author and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.© 2002 by David Romer. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may bequoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.It’s Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?A Dynamic-Programming Analysis of Football StrategyDavid RomerNBER Working Paper No. 9024June 2002JEL No. L10, D21, L83ABSTRACTThis paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football Leaguegames for 1998-2000 to analyze teams' choices on fourth down between trying for a first down andkicking. Dynamic programming is used to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different pointson the field. These estimates are combined with data on the results of kicks and conventional plays toestimate the average payoffs to kicking and going for it under different circumstances. Examination ofteams' actual decisions shows systematic, overwhelmingly statistically significant, and quantitatively largedepartures from the decisions the dynamic-programming analysis implies are preferable.David RomerDepartment of Economics549 Evans HallUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeley, CA 94720-3880and
View Full Document
Unlocking...