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1.011 PROJECT EVALUATION OCEANSIDE-ESCONDIDO RAIL PROJECT NORTH SAN DIEGO COUNTY TRANSIT DISTRICT Above: Rendering of Example Station Right: DMU Train Bottom: Cal-State San Marcos Station JOHN R. VELASCO UNDERGRADUATE SPRING 20031.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 -1- Executive Summary A Brief Project History State Route (SR) 78 is one of the most heavily traveled freeways in San Diego County. Despite recent improvements, it exceeded capacity by the year 2000 and will continue to experience significant increases in traffic demand in the coming decades. For a period of 15 years, there have been a number of transportation studies specifically to identity feasible and cost-effective solutions to the growing transportation needs of northern San Diego County along the SR-78 corridor. Participants in these studies have included SANDAG (San Diego Association of Governments), Caltrans, NCTC (North County Transit District), and the jurisdictions of Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos, Escondido, and the County of San Diego. The study recommended a multimodal approach which includes the provision of passenger rail service over the existing railway right-of-way (ROW), highway improvements, and subregional arterial network improvements. A 1987 study conducted by SANDAG that included a detailed analysis of transit alternatives recommended DMU (diesel multiple-unit) as the preferred rail technology for the SR-78 corridor. In 1987, Proposition A was passed by San Diego voters authorizing the establishment of TRANSNET Funds for local transportation projects which included the Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project. The Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project has a number of objectives it aims to fulfill: - provide an alternative mode of transportation to the automobile in the SR-78 corridor; - alleviate the traffic along this crucial corridor between the coastal and inland North County; - satisfy the public mandate, expressed in voter approval of proposition A in 1987 to finance significant transportation improvements; - provide an efficient non-automobile linkage to some of the area’s key destinations and employment centers; - reduce auto-related air emissions, thereby contributing to the improvement of regional air quality; and - support local land use efforts to revitalize underutilized areas and to assist in the growth of targeted development areas. Source: Environmental Assessment/Subsequent Environmental Impact Report for the Oceanside--Escondido Rail Project, NCTD, 1996.1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 -2- To meet these goals, the proposed project consists of improving 22 miles of existing railroad ROW between the Oceanside and Escondido Transit Centers and adding 1.7 miles of new rail to Cal-State University San Marcos thereby establishing a complete new passenger rail system including new vehicles, stations, a maintenance facility, and ROW improvements. Analysis In analyzing the Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project, I reviewed the major issues of transit congestion that plague the region, as well as several alternatives to solving the problems of congestion and continuing growth. In analyzing each alternative, I briefly examine the costs and benefits. In covering these different alternatives I will approach the discussion in a qualitative manner, as specific numbers for the alternatives (in terms of costs and benefits) were difficult to obtain. I have also covered the proposed alternative with more in depth discussion, with financial analyses, the costs and benefits both in qualitative and as well as quantitative terms. Additionally, the uncertainties of the project will be considered and a scenarios dealing with uncertainty will be presented. Analysis of how the projects costs and benefits might change given this scenario will also be conducted. Recommendation My recommendation to the parties involved (NCTD, Caltrans, SANDAG, and local governments) will be to proceed with the project as planned. The current proposal, as it stands, is the most economically feasible and sustainable alternative. The costs of the No-Action Alternative are too high—as the population of North San Diego County is expected to grow 74.5 % from 1990 (447,048) to 2015 (780,082)—based on current projections (US Census 2000). As population grows, the demand for housing, jobs, and alternative modes of transportation will continue to grow. SR-78 has reached full-capacity and it is neither financially nor physically possible to expand it from 6 to 8 lanes as it would require the reconstruction of numerous bridges and the displacement of a large number of North County residents and businesses. Therefore I recommend the project based not only on the demonstrated need, but also on the low costs (per mile of construction) and the numerous benefits such as decreased congestion and emissions, that it will bring to the region in the years to come.1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 -3- Background History The Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project includes approximately 15 stations serving the 22-mile alignment along existing right-of-way that NCTD purchased in 1990 for $43.4 million dollars. According to a survey conducted by NCTD, 78% of North County residents believe that traffic on SR-78 is a major issue. SR-78 is a heavily-traveled corridor with moderate to severe congestion with 145,000 vehicle trips/day. With the estimated 74% increase in population from 1990 to 2015, it is likely that traffic will continue to be a major issue along the corridor (US Census, 2000). A thorough listing of the reasons behind the need for the project is provided below, divided by the major project components: the main line and the Cal-State San Marcos Loop. Below: Map of the Proposed Oceanside-Escondido Rail Line (Source: North County Transit District)1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 -4- MAIN LINE This portion of the project is along the existing NCTD owned ROW from Oceanside to Escondido. Traffic Conditions SR-78 serves as the main east-west route in North San Diego County between Interstate 15 (I-15) and Interstate 5 (I-5). It is anchored by the two largest cities in the North County—Oceanside and Escondido. The nearest expressways that


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MIT 1 011 - A Brief Project History

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