1Significant events in the formation of our planetand the evolution of life on it:+ Big Bang-13,700 mya(million years ago)+ Solar System and our Planet formed from explodingstar/nebula- 4,550mya+ First Life (prokaryote fossil with genetic code)-3,465mya+ Oxygen Atmosphere created by Cyanobacteria- ~2,000mya+ Sexual Reproduction ( developed by eukaryote microbe)-~1,100mya+ First non microbe/ vertebrate- 500mya+ Fish-475mya, plants 400mya- mammals-225mya+ Apes-35mya, common ancestor-7mya+ Homo sapiens-.15mya23Extinction—rapid loss of speciesSurvival—hold over taxa—disaster taxaRecovery—progenitor taxadominate in new phase4Causes of Extinction- Asteroid Impact – this includes only the one example found–extinction of dinosaurs 65mya(not a general example asspeculated by Raup)- Volcanism – recently suggested as cause of biggest(Permian)extinction event 251mya- Climate – cooling has been involved for most extinctions- Marine Regression – Change in sea level which changesrange and connectivity of land masses- Marine Anoxia – depletion of oxygen in shallow waters5Some milestones in our evolution include- 7 mya humans evolve from African apes – Gorillas, two classes ofchimpanzees – Gorillas split off – humans evolved from chimpanzee line- Vegetarians – driven out by climate change provided first major example ofenvironmental impact- lack of resilience- Succeeded by a generalist (ate both animal protein and vegetable) +protein/more energy  increased brain size- Homo Erectus (1-2 mya) increased brain size but still _ ours – hindbrainmost primitive/first to develop – limbic (mid-brain) emotions next todevelop – cerebral (reasoning, planning) last to develop- As brain increasedAge of ToolsSocial SkillsLanguage- .8mya evolution leveled offSame toolsNo innovationMoves to Europe- Climate Change threatens extinction (ice age)Brain grows- Leads to Neanderthal – king of ice age in EuropeBrain size same as humans- Great Leap Forward (.05mya)Cro Magnon wipes out Neanderthal (superior weapons) in EuropeTheory is that dominance was associated with changes in brainorganization – growth of cerebral cortex connects the brain (it is theInternet)New hunting toolsCave art workPossible also more sophisticated language- Modern HumanFrontal Lobes 200% larger than primatesEnable us to anticipate future events and plan to work towards goals(all impaired with frontal lobe disease)678CONTINENTEurasiaSub-SaharanAfricaThe AmericasAustraliaCandidates7251241DomesticatedSpecies13010Percentage ofcandidatesdomesticated18%0%4%0%A “candidate” is defined as a species of terrestrial, herbivores or carnivorous, wild mammalweighing on the average over 100 pounds.91011121314Major Conclusions- Climate shaped our evolution/ geography influenced where- Brain distinguishes us from other species (ability toinvent/predict)- THE MAIN THESIS OF JARED DIAMOND IS THATTHE SYSTEM WHICH SUPPORTS THE LARGESTNUMBER OF INNOVATIONS AND IS OPEN TOTHE INNOVATIONS OF OTHERS DOMINATES15Why Europe and not Fertile Crescent?- Since it is desert today either environmental change ordestruction/speculate it was destruction- Destruction possible because region was ecologicallyfragile (again raises issue of long-term resilience vs.efficiency in the short term)- Why Europe and not China?o Diversity (disconnected) cultures in Europe made itpossible for Columbus to get supporto Uniformity (connected) of culture in China could leadto uniform shutting down of innovation16- Role of connectednesso Increases diffusiono Decreases resilience- Role of Diversityo Increases innovationo Decreases effectiveness- Role of Humanso Humans are source of problemo Humans need to provide solutiono Impact of our own brain structure and function- Role of Knowledgeo Key to strategyo Uncertainty/unpredictability of the future17Some issues raised by the Grand Challenge- Philosophical/fundamentalo Are Humans the end point of evolution?o Would the Earth System manage itself? GAIAo Can it be managed? Or will the outcome be worse- Ethicalo Is managing our planet for our purposes at the expenseof the biosphere proper?o When solutions have winners and losers who decides?o What does acceptable mean? (Is the goal to have asmany humans as possible with some acceptablequality of life or future people with a higher quality oflife)- Tacticalo Which technocratic approach is best?o How long is long term?o How do we deal with uncertainty?o What new institutions do we need to manage theplanet?18What are the major threats?- Nature driven changeso Asteroidso Ice Ages (climate change)o Ecosystem Instabilityo Disease• Human (also part of nature) driven changeso Changing the atmosphereo Physical, chemical, and biological pollutantso Biodiversity losso Ecological function losso Climate changeo New viruseso Depletion of key resources (e.g., fresh water)o Technical disasters1920GloballyN(t) = dN(t)/dt = Fo(N,t)A(t) = dA(t)/dt = Go(N,t)T = time Need a t=0N = macro state of ecosphere N (atmosphere, lithosphere,hydrosphere, and biosphere)dN(t)/dt = change of ecosphere with time which only dependson its own internal components (not humans)A = macro state of the anthroposphere AdA(t)/dt = change of anthroposphere depends on both its ownstate and the state of the ecosphere21Factors suggesting global influence of Humans- Changing of the atmosphere- Disappearance of stratospheric ozone layer over theAntarctic- 8% of freshwater is used by humans- 11 % of surface area- 30% of fertile soils have been lost- Minerals are moved more by humans than by nature- Humanity controls more than 50% of the Net PrimaryProduction NPP of green plants- Loss of forests at 1% per year- Loss of Biodiversity- Global Pollution- Emerging genetic impact on other species and ourselves22232425 Earth (Biological & Physical systems) Sensors (Measure) Humans (Analyze, Model, Simulate) Social/Political (decisions) Humans (implement Decisions) Impact (Earth/Human System Continued Changes driven by changes in Earth Systems (past) plus the impact on the Earth Systems caused by our actions (current human dominance case) both in pursuit of our own quality of life and in adapting to changes imposed by the Earth system.26 Role of Knowledge Today Time (t) 50% 100% Some we can partially predict Some issues we can predict well now but not well into the future Percentage of correct predictions of the future at time t Role of Values