5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 1MAR110 LECTURE #33 Anthropogenic-Induced Climate Change Temperature and CO2 Proxies for Recent Climate Changesuggest a “secular” increase.However,could it just be part of a LONG-TERMNATURAL CYCLE ?Figure 33.2 A Steadily Warming Earth? Figure 33.1 A Warming Earth – Lots of Evidence5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 2 Evidence Supporting COEvidence Supporting CO22--Induced Temperature IncreaseInduced Temperature IncreaseIce Core COIce Core CO2 2 and Temperature Records are Similarand Temperature Records are SimilarWHAT IS CAUSE and WHAT IS EFFECT?WHAT IS CAUSE and WHAT IS EFFECT?Figure 33.4 Is there cause and effect or just similarity? Two Two FactsFactsWarmer Warmer TemperaturesTemperaturesIncreasedIncreasedCOCO22The Big Question The Big Question Are These Facts Related?Are These Facts Related?Figure 33.3 Are the Facts Related?5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 3 DifferentDifferentModel Model EstimatesEstimatesof of TemperatureTemperatureClimate Climate SensitivitySensitivitytotoCOCO22DoublingDoubling Figure 33.6 Climate Modeling There are a number of different models available to predict the future temperature changes although no one is quite sure which will turn out to be the most accurate. (??) Figure 33.5 Human-Produced Greenhouse Gases (??)5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 4 Figure 33.8Ocean Uptake of CO2 – Its Already Happening! (NG) Climate Physics UncertaintyClimate Physics UncertaintyIncreased Cloudiness in Tropics will Cool EarthIncreased Cloudiness in Tropics will Cool EarthFigure 33.7 Climate Physics Uncertainty (SA)5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 5 Figure 33.10 Temperature Change Distribution -2005- Very Uneven (NG) Figure 33.9b Coral & Algae At Risk–(NG)Figure 33.9a Ocean Carbon Cycle– (NG)5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 6 Figure 33.12 Earth Temperature Prognosis (NG) Past Observations – Orange Model Past, Present, Future -Yellow Figure 33.11Arctic Ice Melting (NG)5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 7 Figure 33.14 Temperature Change Distribution - Forecasting Figure 33.13 Earth Temperature Prognosis (NG) Future SW U.S. Temperature versusCO2 Level5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 8 Past & Present Sea Level RisePast & Present Sea Level RiseFigure 33.15 Sea level Rise Figure 33.16 Terrestial Consequences5 December 2008 MAR 110 Lecture 33 Anthropogenic Climate Implications 9 Conveyor “ON”Conveyor “ON”Conveyor “OFF”Conveyor “OFF”How How Delicate Delicate The The Balance?Balance?Figure 33.17 Fate of the
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