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UW-Madison STAT 301 - STAT 301 Lecture Notes

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(1) Projects, and (2) Recommended Review Questions from RSSG,for Statistics 301, Lecture 1 (Wardrop), Summer Semester, 2005You must perform one or two of the three projects described below and submit a written report for eachproject you select. If you perform two projects, one of them must be project 2. The report must besubmitted on paper; I will not accept electronic reports.You may work alone or as a member of a team of three or fewer persons. If you work as a team, onlyone report per project should be submitted by a team (remember to include everyone’s name on the report!)and all members of the team will receive the same grade. Neither my expectations for nor grading of reportsare influenced by the size of the team.Please submit legible reports. For many of you, this will mean words typed, and “nonwords” (e.g.tables, figures, formulas, and computations) drawn by hand. Effective use of color and illustrations cangreatly enhance a report.The maximum score for each project is 18 points.Project 1A. Due before 2:45 on Thursday, June 9. Perform a balanced completely randomized designon 100 trials with a dichotomous response to investigate some issue. Explain why the issue interests you anddescribe how you randomized. Present and summarize the data using techniques discussed in the course.Choose an alternative for Fisher’s test and explain your choice. Calculate two P-values for the data andalternative: use the standard normal curve with the continuity correction, and use the website to obtain theexact P-value. Compare your two P-values and comment. Your report should include a summary of whatyou have learned from your study.Project 1B. Due before 2:45 on Thursday, June 9. Perform a balanced completely randomized design on50 persons with a dichotomous response to investigate some issue. Indicate how you obtained your subjectsand why these particular persons are of interest to you. Explain why the issue interests you and describehow you randomized. Present and summarize the data using techniques discussed in the course. Choose analternative for Fisher’s test and explain your choice. Calculate two P-values for the data and alternative: usethe standard normal curve with the continuity correction, and use the website to obtain the exact P-value.Compare your two P-values and comment. Your report should include a summary of what you have learnedfrom your study.Project 2. Due before 2:45 on Wednesday, June 15. Perform 100 dichotomous trials under “fixed con-ditions” related to an activity of interest to you. Exercises 6–14 on pages 177–178 of the text presentsummaries of studies of this type that were performed by other students. Your report should describe theactivity, why it interests you, and why you are interested in the fixed conditions you study.Note that if a success is extremely difficult or extremely easy to obtain, 100 trials are not likely to revealmuch of interest. You will obtain more interesting data if you select conditions that make the probability ofsuccess on a trial be a number between 0.25 and 0.75.(a) Before you collect any data make a point guess of the value of p. (Point means single number. Forexample, if I were shooting free throws, before I collect data I would say, “My best guess is thatp = 0.58.”)(b) Use the data from your 100 trials to investigate the validity of Assumptions 2 and 3 of Bernoullitrials, using the techniques presented in lecture for Chapter 5. (Note: I put this in bold-face typebecause, historically, a large proportion of students have neglected to do this when told with regular-face type!) Your report must contain the time-order results of your 100 trials so that I can check youranalysis.(c) On the assumption you have Bernoulli trials, find the 95 percent confidence interval for p. Is yourpoint guess from part (a) in your CI? What does the CI tell you about the validity of your guess?(d) On the assumption you have Bernoulli trials, find the point prediction and 95 percent prediction inter-val for the number of successes in 100 future trials.(e) Perform the 100 additional trials and compare your results to your predictions from part (d).Grading of Reports. A report will not receive full credit simply because it contains no errors. Reports willbe graded on effort, creativity, report presentation (primarily clear writing), accuracy and appropriateness ofanalysis, and interpretation of results.Model projects are available at Helen C. White library and on my webpage. Also click ontoResearch Papers: > Papers on Statistical Education > Small Student ... , pp. 3–9for ideas for project topics. Also, I am not certain that model projects still are available at White library; letme know if you have success or failure in finding them.Recommended Review Questions from RSSG. The table below lists the questions from the sections ofthe RSSG titled Exam Questions that I recommend you attempt when you prepare for the exams. Do notattempt questions not listed; they have been omitted for a reason. The reason is usually that they refer tomaterial that we will not cover; occasionally the reason is that I do not like the question.I have found one error in the RSSG:On page 65, question 15, line 8, the word “large” should read “small.”Let me know if you find other errors; future students and I will be grateful.Chapter Page Recommended Questions Chapter Page Recommended Questions1 4 1–5, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15 12 88 1-7, 11-162 13 1–13, 15, 16, 18–27 15 107 1, 4–6, 9, 11–223 27 1–19, 21–23 16.2 117 1–35 41 1, 3–15 8 64 12–226 50 1–15 13 96 1–8, 10–217 57


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