15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128 Global Climate Change: Economics, Science and PolicyWhy Climate?Why Climate?The Intellectual and Political ChallengeCourse ContentCourse OrganizationMaterialsOther DetailsMIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and PolicySpring 2008For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128Global Climate Change: Economics, Science and Policy• Introductions– Faculty, teaching assistants, administration– The class (SSM, ESD, EAPS, other?)• Why climate . . . & the challenge• Content & materials• Course detailsTHE CONFLICT BETWEEN ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENTClimate ChangeUrban Air PollutionWater QualityLand DegradationEcosystem DisruptionWaste DisposalEnergyFoodTransportationManufacturing Urban DevelopmentPopulation GrowthPotable WaterHuman HealthTHE CLIMATE ISSUEEXEMPLIFIES THECHALLEGE FORSUSTAINING AHABITABLE EARTHWhy Climate?• The scale of current & potential change• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance policy for many industries• The intellectual and political challengeHOW HAVE GLOBAL & CONTINENTAL TEMPERATURES CHANGEDOVER THE PAST CENTURY (1906-2005), AND WHY?Black lines:observed changes. Blue bands: range for 19 model simulations using natural forcings.Red bands: range for 51 model simulations using natural and human forcings.Ref: IPCC 4th Assessment, Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2, 2007Courtesy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Used with permission. From: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.REF: ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Climate Impact Assessment Report, 2004STABILITY OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET (Bindschadler et al).DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER SEA ICESTABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA & PERMAFROSTSeptember 2003September 19795 meters sea level riseAbout550 billion tons ofcarbon stored in Arctic tundra& frozen soils (SCOPE 2004)POLAR REGIONS WARM FASTER THAN TROPICS:WHAT ARE VULNERABLE SYSTEMS AT HIGH LATITUDES?Bindschadler, R. A., R. B. Alley, J. Anderson, S. Shipp, H. Borns, J. Fastook, S. Jacobs, C. F. Raymond, What is happening to the west antarctic ice sheet?, Eos Trans AGU 79(22), 257-257, 1998. Copyright [1998] American Geophysical Union. Reproduced/modified by permission of American Geophysical Union.Courtesy of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004. Used with permission. Courtesy of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004. Used with permission.A NEW WHEELwith lower odds ofEXTREMESWhat would we buy with STABILIZATIONof CO2at 550 ppm?Compared withNO POLICYHOW CAN WE EXPRESS THE VALUE OF ACLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY?Why Climate?• The scale of current & potential change• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance of policy for many industries• The intellectual and political challengeThe Intellectual and Political Challenge• Many natural/social/behavioral sciences• Complexity of the human-climate system• A many-nation “commons” problem• Long time horizons & irreversible effects• Uncertainty (but possible learning)• Intersection with other issues– North-South equity concerns– Energy, transport, land use, taxes, tradeCourse Content• Origin and history of the course– MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change– Materials– “Toy” integrated system model• Homework sets & team project• Classroom style, and preparation• Structure of the class sessions– Mondays vs. Wednesdays– Science . . . economics . . . politicsCourse OrganizationInstitutionsClimate - IClimate - IIInt’n negotiationsEcon - IEcon - II Integration (Toy)Climate - IIIDamage/benefitsHolidayEcon - III Trading/tax systemsClimate - IVHolidayDecision analysisDeciding near-term effort Arctic changeClimate - V Discussion/questionsStudent presentationsBackground/scienceEconomicsEnviro. economicsUncertaintyUncertainty analysisSea level/storms2/112/192/253/33/103/173/263.314/74/214/285/75/144/14MondayWednesdayMaterials• Readings– Packet to purchase, E52 Copy Center ($30)– Hand-outs– Stellar.mit.edu (syllabus, notes, materials)– Material on web (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)– Keep an eye on the news!• Computer needs– “Toy” IGSM in the Sloan Computer Lab– Excel or other worksheet programOther Details• Credits: 3-0-6• Prerequisites . . . & auditors• Class schedule– Mon.: 3:00 to 5:00– Wed.: 3:00 to 4:00 (3:00 to 5:00 on May 12)– WILL meet on Wed., March 16 (Sloan trips)•Grading•