February 14, 2003FW 662 Midterm ExamThis exam is a take-home, open-book exercise. There are 3 questions; you must answer all ofthem, including multiple parts. You may use any reference material (class notes, assignedreading, library material, etc.). Under NO circumstances are you to discuss this exam withclassmates or any other individual. You are to work independently and you should not conferwith others. If you need clarification on a question, please see the instructor, or send email withyour question to [email protected] . This exam is to be turned in by 8:00 am Monday,17 February, at the start of class. Turn in this sheet with your written answers and disks that holdthe spreadsheet models on which your answers are based. All questions require a written answer. In addition, some questions also require you to provide a spreadsheet demonstrating how youobtained your answer. Typed, short, concise answers will be graded more generously than hand-written, long, rambling responses. Your spreadsheets on the first diskette for questions 1 and2, and on a second diskette for 3 will be used to verify that your answers were obtained in alogical fashion, and provide you with partial credit in cases where you got the wrong solution,but just made a simple mistake in the spreadsheet. Please separate your answer sheets forquestions 1 and 2 from question 3 so that they may be separated for grading. Identify youranswer sheets and disks with your SSN only. Only put your name (via your signature) on thissheet.By my signature below, I certify that I have not collaborated with anyone concerning anymaterial related to this examination. SSN Signature DateFW662 Midterm Exam – February 14, 2003 21. Construct a population model for peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus anatum) from thefollowing estimates of survival and reproduction derived from banded birds (1973-2001)and monitored nests (1989-2001) in Colorado. Survival estimates for 0-1, 1-2, and 2+year old birds are 0.544, 0.670, and 0.800, respectively, with standard errors of 0.0765,0.0981, and 0.0544. Average young produced per pair is 1.660 (SE = 0.0443), but thereis considerable variation across years (min = 1.388 in 1995; max = 2.122 in 2000). In2001, the Colorado Division of Wildlife estimates there are approximately 100 pairs ofbirds nesting in the state. A. (10 pts) What is the expected annual rate of population change (8) if females firstreproduce at 2 years of age?B. (5 pts) What is the expected annual rate of population change (8) if only half ofthe females first reproduce at 2 years of age, with the remainder first reproducingat 3 years of age?C. (15 pts) Falconers are requesting to remove young birds from nests to raise incaptivity for falconry. Construct a graph of the expected population rate ofchange (8) on the y axis and percent of young removed on the x axis. Plot 2 lineson the graph, one for the population first reproducing at 2 years of age, and onefor the population first reproducing at 3 years of age.D. (10 pts) Assume that the annual variation in young produced per pair can bemodeled as a normal distribution with mean 1.660 and standard deviation 0.18. What is the expected annual rate of population change (8) with this variationincorporated into the model for the population with birds first reproducing at 2years of age?E. (10 pts) The survival and reproductive parameters provided above includeestimates of precision, i.e., SE are provided. Describe how these estimates ofprecision can be used in the models you constructed above to compute a SE onyour estimates of expected annual rate of population change (8). You don’t needto build this spreadsheet, just describe the process of how you could go aboutproducing a SE on 8 that reflects the sampling variation of the input parameters.2. The following data are the harvest, escapement (S) and returns (Recruits or R) fornorthern Southeast Alaska pink salmon (thousands of fish), 1960-1991. A. (10 pts) Compute the parameters of a Ricker curve that describe these data, andgraph the Ricker curve and the observed values.B. (5 pts) Based on your model, what is the maximum yield that can be obtainedfrom this population? Hint: use Solver to compute this value.C. (5 pts) What is your assesment of the amount of harvest of this population, basedon the evidence provided in the data and the model you fitted to the data? That is,has the harvest generally been greater than or less than what you would consideroptimal based on your analysis? Discuss the assumptions you made to make yourassessment.FW662 Midterm Exam – February 14, 2003 3Year Harvest Escapement [S] Return [R]1958 26781959 104591960 1260 1418 24461961 7624 2835 149341962 489 1957 100311963 10901 4033 80501964 7281 2750 78841965 5159 2891 44301966 4786 3098 130861967 2429 2001 60511968 9871 3215 78011969 3608 2443 58461970 5240 2561 61011971 3012 2834 41751972 3242 2859 25411973 1880 2295 21941974 661 1880 15121975 615 1579 67041976 139 1373 57421977 2521 4183 88091978 2758 2984 40621979 3750 5059 92771980 1393 2669 154521981 5328 3949 103431982 11233 4219 89501983 6053 4290 300111984 4974 3976 39991985 21212 8799 99171986 1143 2856 49061987 5628 4289 182151988 2014 2892 94611989 13638 4577 233591990 5659 38021991 18112 52473. Field biologists have been studying a population of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus),in a small, isolated sky-island forest in Arizona. They would like you to build apopulation model for the species. The biologists will use this model to predict how manyanimals they can expect to have when they estimate populations in late April. You aregiven the following information:Mice rarely live past their second summer of life; thus, the maximum age of animals inthe field is 2 years plus a few months, i.e., survival from year 2 to year 3 is 0. Survivalfrom year 1 to year 2 appears to be highly dependent on rainfall, as rainfall has a largeFW662 Midterm Exam – February 14, 2003 4influence on food supplies (especially seeds). Annual survival from 1 to 2 years of agecan be modeled as a ß-distributed random variable with a mean of 0.45 and a standarddeviation of 0.1. Males and females have similar survival rates.The vast majority of births occur in early May. On average, 1-year-old females give birthto 8 young per year, while 2-year-old females give birth to 4 young per year. These ratesare expected to vary somewhat, but no variance on young per female is available. Thesex ratio of