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AN ESTIMATE OF THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION



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REPORT TO NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN RESEARCH TITLE AN ESTIMATE OF THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION HOW EFFECITVE IS THE CMEA AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON AUTHORS CONTRACTOR Josef C Brada and Jose A Mendez Yale University PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR J Michael Montias COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER 800 9 DATE February 1988 The work leading to this report was supported by funds provided by the National Council for Soviet and East European Research The analysis and interpretations contained in the report are those of the author NOTE This r e p o r t c o n s i s t s of two r e l a t e d p a p e r s In t h e f i r s t p a p e r t h e authors identify the dynamic e f f e c t s of i n t e g r a t i o n and p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e s of the e f f e c t of integration on the rate of c a p i t a l formation and on t e c h n o l o g i c a l progress in 6 regional economic integrations schemes the EEC EFTA CMEA CACA LAFTA and EACM on the basis of an econometric model The second paper constitutes part of a much broader study of the Hungarian economy In t h a t c o n t e x t the paper examines the s t a t i c gains from i n t e g r a t i o n and CMEA s a b i l i t y to g e n e r a t e dynamic gains from integrat ion This report is an incidental product of Council Contract No 800 9 I n d u s t r i a l Policy in Eastern Europe Josef C Brada and J Michael Montias P r i n c i p a l I n v e s t i g a t o r s the Final Report from which has been submitted to the U S Government separately AN ESTIMATE OF THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION I Introduction The rapid rates of growth of the member countries of the EEC and EFTA in the 1960s created a presumption that economic integration has an important effect on the level and growth of economic activity At first the beneficial consequences of economic integration were attributed the so called static effects Chief among these is the increase in production arising from the more rational



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