17.523: Ethnicity and Race in World Politics-Fall 2005 Prof. M. Nobles Lecture 8: A Framework for Analysis of Ethnopolitical Mobilization • Essay topics out today • Read thru preamble of Iraq constitution that will be voted on Oct. 15th o Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds voted on a legislative council that drafted the constitution. o Sunnis are boycotting the constitution despite participating in the drafting. o Sunnis claim that their demands weren’t taken seriously. o Constitution states that Islam is official religion o No law may be passed that contradicts the religion o Student: legislation according to Islam could be a concern o Iraqis are equal under the law without discrimination against race, color, etc. o Student: how are they going to set up powers? Will it be like Iran? Not sure if there will be a fourth branch of government. o Student: Women don’t have rights in Arab culture. It’s going to take a while to make changes to society while staying in the confines of the interpretation of the Quran. o Student: Saudi Arabia furthest right of all Arab countries in terms of patriarchal attitudes. Iraq not as far as Saudi Arabia. o Student: Iraq can’t be expected to tolerate different sexual orientations because it’s still an issue here in the U.S. and Iraq definitely isn’t at the same point as the U.S. o Brazil has a comprehensive constitution that lists every imaginable right but it is not always enforced. There are limits to what a constitution can do. o Student: South after the Supreme Court decision to desegregate, however continued to segregate because it wasn’t enforced. Will that happen in Iraq? o Why is Sunni non-participation/boycotting bad?  Student: a lot of the violence against the U.S. forces comes from Sunnis or forces hired by the Sunnis.  Sunnis are experiencing status reversal. Enjoyed being on top politically. Were associated with the ruling regime. • They do not want to be a permanent minority. • Do not want to be violently attacked.  Many Sunnis are moderate, but they can’t control the fighters, who will likely not be on board politically with the “new Iraqi.”  How much is there a central control of power? o Students need to follow current developments in Iraq. -1-o Why is it important to students? (student responses)  Students are draft age  No support in the military for it.  Financially it affects our future.  Have friends fighting in Iraq  Souring U.S. relations with Europe. Important for economic reasons. Could affect pocket book indirectly.  Draft still possible  Recruitment is low. o Why are Europeans against the U.S. involvement with Iraq  Student: Things were better economically under Saddam.  Had guaranteed source of oil prior to war  Destabilizing of the region  Violating international law  Student: French disbelieve the U.S. justification of war and anything U.S. government says.  Student: In all fairness, the Europeans were the original imperialists.  Student: Feel like everyone has been lied to. o Student: Hurricane Katrina revealed weaknesses in the U.S. It’s weakened in its claims because life in the U.S. isn’t so wonderful and who is the U.S. to force democracy on everyone else. • Ethnopolitical mobilization o Thinking about why people organize around ethnicity, modernization theory viewed ethnicity has vestiges of the past. Once people got better jobs, cities urbanized, class identities would become more important. Ethnic politics will disappear once class identity replaces ethnic identity. o Politics would be more pluralistic and competitive. Elections won’t look like a census. o The predictions of modernization theory didn’t happen. o Ethnic politics can still be seen in:  Developed economies (U.S., western Europe.)  Developing countries (becoming more prosperous, yet ethnic politics persists). • Modernization theory failed. Why? Two competing explanations: o One instrumental reason, people use ethnic identity to get what they want. Want rights, territory, economic advantages. Helps them mobilize a base. OR o Ethnic identities are primordial. Deep cultural and psychological needs. Ethnic conflict occurs sometimes when their identities are threatened. Ethnic politics will persist as long as people view themselves in terms of ethnicity. -2-• Seven internal factors make genocides happen (in book): o Elites rely on repression to remain in power. o Typically seen in authoritarian states. o Elites use power to award groups deferentially. Elite manipulation. o Exclusionary ideology—we’re the best. You’re an animal or sub-human. o Elites are part of an ethnic minority. o Country has recently undergone political upheaval and instability. o State has weak political and economic links with other states, thereby making it easier for elites to shun international norms on human rights.