Congressional CandidatesThe Hierarchical Structure of Running for Office8th District 1998Geography8th District 1998Candidates8th District 1998Schematic of support8th District 1998District SupportStrategic Choice and Political CareersSome important considerationsFactors that Affect the Calculu of Progressive AmbitionPay and Perquisites (some examples)National tidesWhy the midterm loss?*Surge and decline effectStrategic votersStrategic CandidatesIncumbent-protection gerrymanderingLimit to incumbent protectionIncumbents, challengers, and open seat candidatesIncumbency advantage: The PictureIncumbency advantageCongressional Candidates17.251Fall 2004The Hierarchical Structure of Running for Office8th District 1998GeographyWatertownBelmontCambridgeSomervilleBostonChelsea8thDistrict 1998Candidates• Mike Capuano (Somerville mayor) (19,439)• Ray Flynn (former Boston Mayor) (14,829)• George Bachrach (former state sen.) (12,166)• John O’Connor (rich husband) (11,035)• Marjorie Claprood (former state rep & radio personality) (10,358)• Chris Gabrieli (rich guy) (5,732)• Chris Yancy (Boston city council) (4,460)• Susan Tracy (former state. Sen.) (2,855)• Tom Keane (Boston city council) (2,150)• Alex Rodriguez (1,799)8th District 1998Schematic of supportWatertownBelmontCambridgeSomervilleBostonChelseaCapuanoFlynnBachrachO’Connor?Claprood?Gabrieli?Rodriguez?YancyTracyExpr1Expr2-71.2037-71.004342.261842.4106BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFKKKOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRTTTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY8th District 1998District SupportStrategic Choice and Political CareersiiiiCUPaE−=)(jjjjCUPaE−=)(Some important considerations• Variations in variable values– across time– cross-sectionally• Factors that affect the calculus of progressive ambitionFactors that Affect the CalculuIof Progressive AmbitionBLvs. BHPLvs. PHCLvs. CH-Scope of legislative authority-Political and policy resources within the institution-Pay and perquisites-Springboard effects-National forces-Party identification in the districts-Redistricting-Scandal-Opportunities foregone-Number and quality of challengers-Fund-raising efficiency-Efficiency of translating money and volunteer time into votesPay and Perquisites (some examples)State Stipend Travel allowanceAlabama $10/day (C) $2,280/month plus $50/day for three days during each week that the legislature actually meets during any sessionGeorgia $16,200/year $128/day, set by the legislature.Massachusetts $50,122.80/year From $10/day-$100/day, depending on distance from State House, set by the legislature.New Hampshire $200/two-year term No per diem is paid.Rhode Island $11,236/year No per diem is paid.West Virginia $15,000/year $115/day during session, set by compensation commission. $150/Day for attendance during interim.National tides-20-10010203040506019501954195819621966197019741978198219861990199419982002YearMidterm lossHouseSenateWhy the midterm loss?*• Surge and decline effect• Strategic voters• Strategic politicians*And where did it go?Surge and decline effectDDRRR R R RD D D DMidtermGood Dem.Pres’l YearGood Rep.Pres’l YearMidtermStrategic votersD RDd DrRdPres’l electionyearRrD RdrMidtermw/ Dem.pres. &Cong.Strategic CandidatesdHousedRDI dHouse Fitted values Fitted values-.020 .02 .04-52.192624.85061974195819941982195419701962196619781986199019982002dSenatedRDI dSenate Fitted values Fitted values-.020 .02 .04-15-10-5051974195819941982195419701962196619781986199019982002dsenate = -3.7 + 134dRDIR2=.16dhouse = -29.0+1343dRDIq1R2= .71Incumbent-protection gerrymanderingBelmontWatertownLimit to incumbent protection• By removing parts of the district from an incumbent in which s/he has developed an “incumbency advantage,” an incumbent can be hurt, even if added parts of the district share the incumbent’s partisanship.Incumbents, challengers, and open seat candidates• Incumbents– Incumbency advantage• Challengers– Challenger quality• Open seat candidates– The free-for-allIncumbency advantage: The PictureIncumbency advantage• Why does it exist?– Franking, etc.– Constituency service– Redistricting– Smarter