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A DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR HURRICANE EVACUATION AND SHELTERING A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering By Jason Fennell B S Louisiana State University 2006 May 2009 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people helped in the development of this thesis The author would like to thank his advisor Dr Marc Levitan for his advice help and support in the writing of this thesis as well as for allowing the author time to choose a topic for which he had great interest in Additional thanks to the members of my committee Dr Michele Barbato Dr Barry Keim and Dr Ivor van Heerden for their support in the development of this thesis The author would like to thank his fellow students Dr Sam Amoroso for his advice and encouragement to attend graduate school Ms Carol Friedland and Mr Ahmet Binselam for their assistance in technical matters and Mr Ryan Hedlund for keeping the author company in an otherwise empty building The author would also like to thank his parents Thomas and Theresa Fennell and Robin and Tim Truax as well as Ms Laura Picou for their encouragement and support during the creation of this thesis ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii ABSTRACT vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1 1 Problem Statement 2 1 2 Goals and Objectives 2 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2 1 Hazard Vulnerability and Risk 5 2 1 1 Perception of Risk 6 2 2 Hurricane Meteorology and Hazards 7 2 2 1 High Winds 8 2 2 2 Rainfall Flooding 12 2 2 3 Storm Surge Flooding 13 2 3 Waves and Wind Wave Generation 14 2 4 Saffir Simpson Scale 15 2 5 Hurricane Return Periods 16 2 5 1 Return Period for Hurricane Wind Speeds 18 2 5 2 Wind Speeds and Hurricane Category 19 2 6 Hurricane Forecasting 19 2 6 1 SLOSH Storm Surge Modeling 23 2 6 2 Probabilistic Storm Surge Model 26 2 6 3 Rainfall Prediction 27 2 7



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