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A DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK

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A DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR HURRICANE EVACUATION AND SHELTERING A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering By Jason Fennell B.S., Louisiana State University, 2006 May 2009ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people helped in the development of this thesis. The author would like to thank his advisor, Dr. Marc Levitan for his advice, help, and support in the writing of this thesis, as well as for allowing the author time to choose a topic for which he had great interest in. Additional thanks to the members of my committee; Dr. Michele Barbato, Dr. Barry Keim, and Dr Ivor van Heerden for their support in the development of this thesis. The author would like to thank his fellow students; Dr. Sam Amoroso for his advice and encouragement to attend graduate school, Ms. Carol Friedland and Mr. Ahmet Binselam for their assistance in technical matters, and Mr. Ryan Hedlund for keeping the author company in an otherwise empty building. The author would also like to thank his parents, Thomas and Theresa Fennell and Robin and Tim Truax, as well as Ms. Laura Picou for their encouragement and support during the creation of this thesis.iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................1 1.1 Problem Statement .....................................................................................................2 1.2 Goals and Objectives ..................................................................................................2 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................5 2.1 Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk .................................................................................5 2.1.1 Perception of Risk ...............................................................................................6 2.2 Hurricane Meteorology and Hazards .........................................................................7 2.2.1 High Winds ..........................................................................................................8 2.2.2 Rainfall Flooding ...............................................................................................12 2.2.3 Storm Surge Flooding........................................................................................13 2.3 Waves and Wind Wave Generation .........................................................................14 2.4 Saffir-Simpson Scale ................................................................................................15 2.5 Hurricane Return Periods .........................................................................................16 2.5.1 Return Period for Hurricane Wind Speeds ........................................................18 2.5.2 Wind Speeds and Hurricane Category ..............................................................19 2.6 Hurricane Forecasting ..............................................................................................19 2.6.1 SLOSH Storm Surge Modeling .........................................................................23 2.6.2 Probabilistic Storm Surge Model ......................................................................26 2.6.3 Rainfall Prediction .............................................................................................27 2.7 Flood Prediction and Management ..........................................................................28 2.8 Hurricane Damage ....................................................................................................30 2.8.1 Wind Damage ....................................................................................................30 2.8.2 Surge Damage ...................................................................................................34 2.9 Hurricane Loss-of-Life .............................................................................................36 2.9.1 Flood Casualties ................................................................................................39 2.9.2 Wind Casualties .................................................................................................40 2.9.3 Evacuation Casualties ........................................................................................42 2.10 Current Practices for Sheltering Selection and Design .........................................44 2.11 Current Practices for Evacuation Planning ...........................................................44iv 2.11.1 Current Evacuation and Sheltering Decision Making Processes ....................46 CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................49 3.1 High Winds ..............................................................................................................50 3.1.1 Yearly Hurricane Prediction ..............................................................................50 3.1.2 Wind Speed Decay ............................................................................................52 3.1.3 Landfall Probability ...........................................................................................53 3.1.3.1 Hurricane forecast Landfall Error by Spatial Position on the Northern Gulf Coast................................................................................................................................53 3.1.3.2 Analysis of Landfall Error Tendency to the Left or Right .........................57 3.1.3.3 Calculation of Landfall Probability ...........................................................58 3.1.4 Wind Environment ............................................................................................60 3.1.4.1 Determination of Wind Speed Probabilities at a Specific Location ..........63 3.2 Storm Surge Flooding ..............................................................................................69


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