Raj JainThe Ohio State University1B-1Networking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsRaj JainThe Ohio State UniversityColumbus, OH [email protected]://www.cis.ohio-state.edu/~jain/FutureAll I want you to tell me is what will be thenetworking technology in the year 2000.JoanQuiglyWhiteHouseAstrologerRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-3q Networking Trendsq Life Cycle of TechnologiesOverviewRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-4Trend: Networking is CriticalTrend: Networking is CriticalTrend: Networking is Criticalq Communication more critical than computing⇒ Bus performance vs ALU speed⇒ I/O performance vs SPECMarksq User Location:q 1960: Computer room 1970: Terminal roomq 1980: Desktop 1990: Mobileq System Extent:q 1980: 1 Node within 10 mq 1990: 100 nodes within 10 kmRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-5q Last 10 years: Individual computingNext 10 years: Cooperative computingq Past: Corporate networksFuture:q Intercorporate networksq National Info Infrastructuresq Global Info InfrastructuresRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-6Trend: Telecommunication andTrend: Telecommunication andTrend: Telecommunication andNetworkingNetworkingNetworkingq From computerization of telephone traffic switchingto telephonization of computer traffic switching.Raj JainThe Ohio State University1B-7Life Cycles of TechnologiesLife Cycles of TechnologiesLife Cycles of TechnologiesYou are hereTimeNumber of Problems SolvedRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-8Life Cycles of Networking TechnologyLife Cycles of Networking TechnologyLife Cycles of Networking TechnologyYou are hereTimeNumber of HostsBytes per HostsNumber of NetworksMIPSMemory SizeStorageRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-9Trend: Exponential GrowthTrend: Exponential GrowthTrend: Exponential Growth0200,0001,000,0001,800,000Jul-81Oct-85Jul-88Oct-89Oct-91Oct-92Oct-93Number of Hosts on the InternetRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-10Networking in Social FabricNetworking in Social FabricNetworking in Social Fabricq USENET: Ten million news articles/monthq 18 on-line coffee houses in San Franciscoq National Public Radio Programq Supreme court decision within one dayq Real estate, on-line catalogq 137 countries reachable via EmailRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-11Trend: Profusion of InformationTrend: Profusion of InformationTrend: Profusion of Informationq High Technology ⇒ Less labor ≠ More vacationq High bandwidth ⇒ More bits per secondq Hundreds of telegrams per dayq Short product development cyclesq Short technology cyclesq Research and development side by sideRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-14Trends in ApplicationsTrends in ApplicationsTrends in Applicationsq Little Voiceq AT&T: 125 to 130 M calls/day @ 5 min/call64 kbps/call ⇒ 28.8 Gbps = 1/1000 of one fiberq 200 Million X 24 hr/day X 64 kbps = 12.8 TbpsuRef: IEEE Spectrum, August 1992, p 19.1985 19901995 201075%56%39%Percent ofVoice onPrivate NetsRaj JainThe Ohio State University1B-15SummarySummarySummaryq Networking is critical and growing exponentially.q Computer and Telecommunications industry mergingq Networking is becoming an essential part of
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